The influence of population growth and shrinkage on carbon emission intensity in old industrial cities of China
Due to their unique development course,old industrial cities,while making the historic contributions to the industrialization of China,have been trapped in the dilemma of path dependence.With the existence of numerous high-pollution,energy-intensive industries,the carbon emission intensity of old industrial cities is significantly higher than the national average.Against the background of the differentiated population changes in old industrial cities,the differences in carbon emission intensity among cities are prominent.In order to meet the targets of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality,it will be of important theoretical and practical value to explore the influence of population growth and shrinkage on carbon emission intensity and to propose differentiated control measures for old industrial cities of difference types.Under such circumstance,based on night light data,spatial analysis and mediator effect model were used to analyze the influence effect that population growth and shrinkage exert on carbon emission intensity of old industrial cities from 2001 to 2020.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall carbon emission intensity of old industrial cities has decreased,showing the temporal characteristic of"dynamic convergence"and the spatial characteristic of"high in the north and low in the south".The differences between the north and the south have gradually become prominent,and the evolution course of carbon emission intensity in different types of old industrial cities varies.According to the results of Bivariate Spatial Autocorrelation Methods,there are significant negative spatial correlations between population change and carbon emission intensity.(2)The results of mediator effect model indicate that population growth and shrinkage can directly affect the evolution of carbon emission intensity in old industrial cities through agglomeration and scale effects.In addition,under different trends of population change,mediation variables show different changing features,influencing carbon emission intensity indirectly.(3)For old industrial cities of different types,the impact of population changes on carbon emission intensity manifests distinct paths.In terms of old industrial cities characterized by population growth,population changes influence carbon emission intensity mainly by technological innovation,policy intervention,urban expansion,investment intensity,and openness to foreign market.As for the cities featured by mild population shrinkage,carbon emission intensity is influenced by economic development,technological innovation,openness to foreign market,and urban expansion.For those featured by significant population shrinkage,carbon emission intensity is influenced by economic development,policy intervention and openness to foreign market.
old industrial citiespopulation shrinkagecarbon emission intensitymesomeric ef-fectnight light data
万方数据
维普
