The spatial distribution of construction land exhibits characteristics of aggregation or exclusion,potentially influencing the urban expansion pattern.However,existing studies on urban expansion simulation often overlook the aggregation and exclusion of construction land.Therefore,based on clarifying the aggregation and exclusion within construction land and among different types of construction land,this study incorporates them into calculating the developmental suitability and neighborhood impact factors of a Cellular Automaton(CA).Then,the CA-SAE(CA model considering spatial aggregation and exclusion of construction land)model is developed.Specifically,firstly,integrating spatial impact factors and influence forces of spatial factors for different construction land expansions,we calculate the suitability for potential development land units to develop into different types of construction land.Secondly,in combination of the aggregation and exclusion coefficients of construction land,the neighborhood impact factor for potential development land units to develop into different types of construction land is computed.Furthermore,by incorporating the constraints and random disturbance factors from the traditional CA model,the probability for potential development land units to develop into different types of construction land is calculated,and the land type with the highest probability is selected as the expected transformed construction land type.Finally,these units are grouped based on the expected transformed construction land type for potential development land units in the study area.Within each group,transformations occur sequentially from high to low probability,and the simulation terminates when the number of transformations reaches the constraints of various types of construction land planning indicators.To verify the scientific and effective nature of the CA-SAE model,we apply it to the empirical analysis of the urban expansion simulation in Yiwu.The results show that:(1)The CA-SAE model can effectively simulate the expansion of different types of construction land,with results more closely aligning with reality.(2)The simulation accuracy of the CA-SAE model surpasses that of traditional CA models.The overall accuracy of the CA-SAE model is 0.9063,the Kappa coefficient is 0.7688,and the FoM is 0.1509.(3)Multi-scenario simulation results confirm that construction land aggregation and exclusion affect the spatial distribution of different types of construction land and the form of urban expansion.When the aggregation of construction land is strong,it tends to cluster,and the fragmentation decreases.Conversely,when the exclusion of construction land is strong,the aggregation of industrial land increases,and the fragmentation decreases,with expansion occurring away from residential and commercial land.The CA-SAE model developed in this study innovatively incorporates the aggregation and exclusion of construction land into the CA model.This model provides new ideas and methods for simulating urban expansion,focusing on different types of construction land.Additionally,the simulation results based on this model can offer references for the spatial layout of different types of construction land in territorial spatial planning.
维普
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