Effects of regional population shrinkage on economic growth and the underlying mechanism
In recent years,the phenomenon of population shrinkage has been observed at the regional level.However,the key issue of whether population shrinkage affects regional economic development is still lacking discussion.This study uses the fourth(1990),fifth(2000),sixth(2010),and seventh(2020)population census data in China at the prefecture level,and employs the change of total resident population as the index to identify population shrinkage areas.Subsequently,a population-economic growth model is established to analyze the impacts of population shrinkage on regional economic growth and the possible spatial differentiation characteristics,as well as to discuss the underlying mechanisms.The main findings of this study are as follows:Firstly,population shrinkage areas rapidly expanded from 1990 to 2020,forming large-scale concentration areas in the central and western regions and the northeast region,and the eastern region has also shown a characteristic of local centralized distribution,such as the northern part of Jiangsu province.Secondly,the empirical models show that population shrinkage did not produced a negative impact on regional economic growth during the research period.Instead,it promoted the improvement of the per capita output level.Thirdly,there were spatial differences in the impacts of population shrinkage on regional economic development.Population shrinkage has a significant positive impact on regional economic growth in the eastern and central-western regions,while population shrinkage has insignificant impacts on regional economic growth in the northeast region.Fourthly,in terms of the underlying mechanisms,population shrinkage in most areas is mainly caused by rural population outflow,while the urban population still maintains rapid growth.Given urban areas are the core of regional economic development,population shrinkage may not cause the problems of insufficient regional labor supply and low growth of human capital.Instead,the decline of rural surplus labor can help improve labor productivity.In contrast,the emergence of urban population shrinkage in many research units in the northeast region may have been a severe challenge for labor supply,regional innovation capability,and economic agglomeration,which becomes an important reason for the insignificant economic effect of population shrinkage.Based on the above findings,this study suggests avoiding a one-sided negative perspective on the phenomenon of population shrinkage,but it is suggested to pay attention to the sustainable development of population and economy in urban population shrinkage areas.
population shrinkagemigrationeconomic effectsurbanizationChina
万方数据
维普
