Research on the evolution mechanism of oil resource flow along the Belt and Road based on TERGM
The current global energy interaction pattern is undergoing profound changes.As the main battlefield of China's foreign oil cooperation,clarifying the formation process and evolution mechanism of oil resource flow pattern along the Belt and Road has increasingly become the key point for ensuring China's oil cooperation security.This paper used the data from 2000 to 2020,including international oil import and export trade data,relevant national economic and social development indicators,and the spherical distance between countries.Then it discussed the endogenous structure characteristics and synthetic evolution mechanism of oil resource flow along the Belt and Road,with the help of network motifs detection and temporal exponential random graph model.The results show that:(1)The endogenous structure tends to be characterized by unidirectional transfer or ternary reciprocity,which confirms the oil resource flow along the Belt and Road has self-organization characteristics,and there is mutual influence among the participants'trade relations.In addition,the self-organization characteristics such as"transitivity","reciprocity"and"cyclicity"can have an endogenous driving effect on the evolution of oil resource flow,and also confirms the scientific validity of the TERGM model selected in this paper.(2)The influencing mechanism of oil resource flow can be summarized as reciprocity,endogenous structure dependent effect,countries attribute,exogenous network embedding and time dependent effect.Reciprocal relations and triad closure relations are the main structure of oil trade expansion.Economic development convergence,institutional environment and infrastructure heterogeneity are the key factors for bidirectional matching of every two countries.Countries that produce or consume oil resource on a larger scale tend to keep more trade relations.Economic correlation network and political cooperation network are important exogenous linkages,and economic embeddedness and political embeddedness have facilitated oil trade relationships formation.In pursuit of the harmonious development between economy,politics and security,some spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of oil resource flow can be detected along the Belt and Road,but throughout the longitudinal time series,the whole oil resource flow pattern has become stable,and maintaining the stable and comprehensive development of existing relations is the key point to promote the oil resource flow to Pareto optimality.Finally,based on the results of this paper,we proposed some countermeasures for countries along the Belt and Road especially for China to optimize their foreign oil cooperation paths.
oil resource flowstructural dependencenetwork embeddednesstemporal exponential random graph modelsthe Belt and Road
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