Resilience of shrinking cities:Diagnosis of shrinking effects and research on their transmission paths
Resilience is an important basis for formulating urban sustainable development policies.Shrinkage,a new phenomenon in the process of urban development that contrasts with growth,presents comprehensive characteristics of a reduction in total volume and its effects due to the outflow of development elements such as population.Whether and how shrinkage affects urban resilience has become one of the core scientific issues to be addressed in the construction of urban resilience.This paper,based on comparative inductive analysis,conducts an empirical analysis taking Northeast China,where shrinking cities are most concentrated,as an example.The results show that:(1)There is a clear"shrinkage effect"on the resilience of shrinking cities in the Northeast,characterized by the resilience level of non-shrinking cities being significantly higher than that of shrinking cities,resilience declining with the evolution of the shrinkage stage,and a spatial pattern of higher resilience in the south and lower in the north.(2)The impact of shrinkage on urban resilience exhibits dimension heterogeneity and path transmissibility.it has a positive shrinkage effect on social resilience,ecological environment resilience,and infrastructure resilience,affecting them through the mechanism of"population outflow leading to an increase in per capita occupancy level of resilience indicators→resulting in the improvement of subsystem resilience of social-ecological environment,and infrastructure based on stock indicators";it has a negative shrinkage effect on economic resilience,which is most sensitive and significant,affecting it through the mechanism of"loss of development elements such as population,capital,factories,and enterprises and other coupling effects→leading to limited urban development capacity,reduced development efficiency,constrained local finances→resulting in the decline of urban economic resilience based on incremental indicators".The former represents a quantitative increase,while the latter represents a qualitative decline.(3)The impact of shrinkage on urban resilience is essentially the dynamic changes and overlapping effects of shrinkage-induced urban GDP,urban permanent population,intermediate variables such as local fiscal tax revenue,etc.,presenting feedback results that affect the city's comprehensive competitiveness and guarantee capability.Therefore,in revealing the shrinkage effect of urban development,the essence of"shrinkage and shrinking cities"should be deeply explored.This study is a useful expansion and extension of existing research on urban resilience,shrinking cities,and their coupling,and is expected to provide a universal research paradigm for other related shrinkage effect studies,as well as theoretical basis and reference for the construction of resilience in shrinking cities.
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