Spatial pattern and mechanism of depopulation in the mountainous counties in China
This study examines the spatial distribution of depopulation at the county level in the mountainous areas of China from 2000 to 2020,using census data and employing the Heckman two-stage model to uncover determinants within the framework of 3D(Density,Distance,Division).Subsequently,geographical detector is used to discern interaction effects of determinants on depopulation in the mountainous areas.Based on these findings,we adopt a"four-layer integration"framework proposed by Professor Zhou Shangyi to investigate the formation mechanism of spatial depopulation patterns in the mountainous areas of China.The results are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the proportion of population in the mountainous areas of China continuously declined.This decline was accompanied by an increase in the number of mountainous counties experiencing depopulation and a worsening severity of depopulation with self-reinforcing characteristics.(2)The number of mountainous counties with declining population density continued to increase,with the transitional area(population density ranging from 100-200 people/km2)being the most dynamic region for population changes.Population primarily shifted from the transitional area to sparsely populated regions,while some transitions occurred from agglomeration areas to the transitional area.Only a few mountainous counties experienced transitions from the transitional area to agglomeration areas.Mountainous counties adjacent to provincial and prefectural administrative boundaries show significant population fluctuations and declining trends.(3)The depopulation in counties is spreading and concentrated in eight major regions:east-central Inner Mongolia & Northeast China,Wuling Mountains,Qinling-Daba Mountains,Dabie Mountains,Taihang Mountains,central Yunnan,hilly areas of Shandong,and hilly areas of Fujian.Severe and moderate decline is mainly observed in east-central Inner Mongolia & Northeast China and Wuling Mountains while the remaining areas show a mild decline.(4)The depopulation follows an isochronal pattern,occurring within a 2-hour radius of prefecture-level cities and a 4-hour radius of provincial capital cities.This pattern initially strengthens but weakens with increasing distance.(5)The negative correlation between employment density and depopulation in the mountainous counties is evident.Depopulation tends to be more prevalent in the mountainous counties located farther away from prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals.Cultural division can hinder depopulation,while institutional division has the opposite effect.These aforementioned factors collectively shape the dynamics of depopulation in the mountainous areas through their distinct and interactive impacts.
mountainous areas of Chinadepopulation"3D"frameworkfour-layer integra-tionspatial pattern
万方数据
维普
