Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of interprovincial elderly migration in China:Based on the census data
As China undergoes demographic aging and socioeconomic transformation,elderly migration is emerging as a significant theme in population geographical studies,highlighting the need to study its spatial patterns and underlying mechanisms.Using microdata from China's fifth,sixth,and seventh population censuses,this study deciphers the interprovincial migration patterns of the elderly for three distinct periods:1995-2000,2005-2010,and 2015-2020.Furthermore,the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model is employed to illuminate the forces shaping these patterns.The key findings are as follows:(1)Over a five-year span,the scale and intensity of elderly migration have shown a steady growth,with migration patterns maintaining regional concentration.(2)Elderly migration exhibits a pattern of aggregation in destination provinces and dispersion in origin provinces.The top five destination provinces account for nearly half of the national migration influx,while the top five origin provinces contribute only a fifth of the outflow.Migration primarily flows from central,northern,and northeastern regions to the southern and eastern regions.(3)Amidst the overall stable migration patterns and types across provinces,migration paths are evolving towards diversification,densification,and centralization.This forms two main streams:one towards the economically developed eastern region and the other towards regions with favorable natural environments.(4)The migration patterns of the elderly reveal a complex interplay of gravitational,family,economic,social,and natural factors.Elderly migration shares commonalities with other age groups and is increasingly influenced by the push of natural environmental factors in the place of origin and the pull of social and economic factors in the destination.
population aginginterprovincial migrationspatio-temporal patternsinfluencing mechanismsgeographical research on aging
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
