The impact of trade protection on export upgrading in Guangdong cities:An analysis based on export sophistication
With the dynamic of geopolitics and international relations,trade protection increasingly influences the upgrading of exports.Previous research primarily addressed this topic within the contexts of industries and firms without taking full consideration of geographical characteristics.This study incorporates trade protection into the research framework of regional export upgrading,with a focus on Guangdong.By analyzing China Customs trade data and Global Trade Alert data spanning 2009 to 2016,this paper delineates the spatial patterns of trade protection and the sophistication of urban exports.Through econometric analysis,the impact of trade protection on urban export sophistication is examined,alongside mediation effects,moderating effects,and spatial heterogeneity.Findings reveal that 58.5％of trade protection incidents in Guangdong originate from developed countries,predominantly targeting cities within the Pearl River Delta.Generally,cities further from the Pearl River Delta exhibit lower export sophistication.Trade protection drives urban export upgrades.Empirical evidence indicates that trade protection enhances urban innovation and reduces the diversification of exports,thus elevating export sophistication.Compared to regions in non-Pearl River Delta region,trade protection more significantly promotes export upgrading within Pearl River Delta cities,thereby widening regional disparities.Industrial agglomeration intensifies the positive effects of trade protection,aiding export upgrading in non-Pearl River Delta region at the regional level,and toward developed countries at the destination country level.This research underscores the importance of leveraging industrial agglomeration to bolster targeted innovation and to refine the structure of export products and markets as pivotal measures for fostering export upgrading under trade protection.
export upgradingexport sophisticationtrade protectionindustrial agglomerationGuangdongPearl River Delta
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