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共同富裕视角下城市群发展的平衡性:理论内涵、指标体系与演变特征

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城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的高级空间组织形式.促进城市群内部非中心城市与中心城市的平衡发展,对于推动区域共同富裕具有重要的理论与现实意义.在阐析共同富裕视角下城市群发展平衡性理论内涵的基础上,从富裕性特征和共同性特征两个维度构建指标体系,采用熵值法对2011-2021年中国九大城市群内非中心城市与中心城市发展的平衡性进行量化评价,并采用Dagum基尼系数、收敛模型、核密度估计、Markov链模型等方法分析其时空演变特征及发展趋势.结果表明:①城市群内部非中心城市与中心城市的发展平衡性逐渐增强,珠三角和长三角的总体指数处于领先地位.富裕性特征的年均增长率较高,但各城市群在共同性特征上的水平仍较低且呈波动态势.②总体指数的基尼系数呈现缩小趋势,发展不平衡现象有所改善,且城市群之间的差异是中国整体差异的主要来源.此外,各城市群总体指数均存在β收敛,哈长城市群和关中平原城市群存在总体指数较低和收敛速度慢的双重难题.③在研究期间内总体指数核密度曲线缓慢向右移动且极化现象减弱.同时,Markov链分析表明发展平衡性水平有向上转移的趋势,但较难实现跨越式发展.研究结论揭示了城市群发展的平衡性趋势,并为推进实现共同富裕提供有益支撑.
The balance of urban agglomeration development under the perspective of common prosperity:Theoretical connotation,indicator system and evolution characteristics
Urban agglomerations represent an advanced spatial organizational form achieved during the mature stage of urban development.Promoting balanced development between central and non-central cities within urban agglomerations is crucial for advancing regional common prosperity,both theoretically and practically.Based on an analysis of the theoretical connotations of balanced development from the perspective of common prosperity,this study constructs an indicator system from two dimensions:affluence characteristics and commonality characteristics.Using the entropy method,we quantitatively evaluate the balance of development between non-central and central cities within the nine major urban agglomerations in China from 2011 to 2021.We employ various methods including the Dagum Gini coefficient,convergence models,kernel density estimation,and Markov chain models to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and development trends.The results indicate that:(1)The balance of development between central and non-central cities within urban agglomerations has gradually improved,with the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta leading in overall index scores.The annual growth rate of affluence characteristics is relatively high,while the level of commonality characteristics remains low and exhibits fluctuation.(2)The Gini coefficient of the overall index shows a decreasing trend,indicating improvement in development imbalance,with differences between urban agglomerations being a major source of overall disparity in China.Additionally,there is β-convergence in the overall index across urban agglomerations,with the Harbin-Changchun and the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomerations facing the dual challenge of low overall index and slow convergence speed.(3)During the study period,the kernel density curve of the overall index has shifted slowly to the right,and the polarization phenomenon has weakened.Moreover,Markov chain analysis indicates a trend toward improved development balance,though achieving leapfrog development remains challenging.The study's conclusions reveal the trends in balanced development within urban agglomerations and provide valuable support for advancing common prosperity.

common prosperitybalanced development of urban agglomerationsconvergence characteristicsevolution trend characteristics

罗富政、李先乐

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湖南师范大学商学院,长沙 410081

共同富裕 城市群平衡发展 收敛特征 演变趋势

2024

地理研究
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.214
ISSN:1000-0585
年,卷(期):2024.43(12)