Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Export Fluctuations in Goods Trade With ASEAN:An Empirical Analysis Based on an Improved CMS Model
Promoting a stable scale and optimal structure in foreign trade plays a crucial supporting role in driving high-quality development.To better study the impact of changes in trade structure on China's exports,adjustments were made to the al-gorithms of the CMS model's import demand structure effect and export structure effect as well as their subeffects,and the im-proved CMS model was used to conduct an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of China's export fluctuations.In addi-tion,the research cycle is extended to 2008-2022,involvingmajor events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic,to investigate the impact of various influencing factors on China's exports during important periods.On this basis,it is foundthat:l)The significant increase in China's commodity exports to ASEAN is mainly attributed to the expansion of import de-mand,the improvement of overall export competitiveness,and the overall interaction of the two.Structurally,the structural effect of import demand significantly promotes exportsand the export structural effect inhibits exports.2)The reason why the export structural effect suppresses exports is that China's exports are concentrated in countries and commodities with lower export ef-fects.3)As ASEAN faces a crisis,the negative impact of a demand-driven growth model and an already export-suppressive ex-port structure on China's exports is even more pronounced.Therefore,to promote the stable growth of China's exports to ASEAN,it is necessary to drive the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and vigorously develop strategic emerging indus-tries to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese goods exports;make full use of RCEP tax reduction and rules such as origin accu-mulation to explore business opportunities;actively promote version 3.0 negotiations for the Chine-ASEAN Free Trade Area.comprehensively improve the level of institutional openness in China-ASEAN economic and trade,strengthen cooperation with ASEAN in areas such as the digital economy and green energy economy,and cultivate new growth points for bilateral trade.
ASEANtrade in goodsexport fluctuationstrade influencing factorsCMS model
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