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柬埔寨2023年回顾与2024年展望

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2023年是柬埔寨完成历史性换届之年,柬埔寨政治、经济和外交工作总体过渡平稳.政治方面,以洪玛奈为首的年轻一代领导人顺利接棒,为确保新一届政府良好开局,人民党先与27个中小型政党签署结盟协议,暂时解决了国内政党林立、政见不和问题,再提出并落实"以人为本"的政策性项目,消除换届带来的不确定政治风险,使政府以更为平稳的姿态度过此次特殊的新旧换届期.经济方面,虽然政府下调了经济发展预期,但GDP增速仍达5.6%,这主要源于农业整体向好、工业发展平稳及服务业增势明显带来的积极效应,但经济高度"美元化"和三产比例问题仍是柬埔寨经济发展过程中将面临的隐忧.外交方面,新一届政府重申外交原则,实施"大国平衡"战略,中柬关系实现提质升级,柬美关系出现新的转机,柬越特殊关系得到进一步强化.展望2024年,柬埔寨第七届政府将开始逐步落实"五角战略"第一阶段规划,在财政预算缩减的情况下,通过开源节流的方式增强柬埔寨经济韧性,力求实现GDP增速达6.6%的目标.在"大国平衡"战略下,柬埔寨继续深化与中国关系,同时期望淡化与美国之间的分歧以打开外交新局面,建立更为开放和包容的国际合作关系.
A Retrospect of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024in Cambodia
The year 2023 marks a historic transition of Cambodian leadership and its political,economic and diplomatic tran-sition has been generally smooth.Politically,the younger generation,under the leadership of Hun Manet,smoothly took overto en-sure a good start for the new government.The Cambodia People's Party(CPP)first signed alliance agreements with 27 small and medium-sized political parties,temporarily resolving the problem of the proliferation of political parties and political disagree-ment,and then put forward and implemented the"people-oriented"policy projects,eliminating the political risks of uncertainty brought about by the transitionto enable the government to ride out the special"new-old transition"in a more stable manner.Eco-nomically,the government downgraded its economic outlook,but GDP growth was still 5.6%.This is mainly due to the effect of overall improvement of agriculture,steady development of industry and the growing trend of the service industry.However,the highly dollarized economyand the inappropriate proportion of the three sectorsare still hidden worries in the process of Cambo-dia's economic development.Diplomatically,the new government reaffirmedits diplomatic principles,implemented the strategy of"great power balance",upgraded the China-Cambodia relations,experienced a new turn in Cambodia-US relations,and further strengthened the special relations between Cambodia and Vietnam.In 2024,Cambodia's new governmentwill actively implement the first-phase plan of the Five-Corner Strategies.In the context of budget reduction,Cambodia aims to enhance its economic re-silience and achieve a GDP growth rate of 6.6%through broadening sources of income and reducing expenditure.Under the strat-egy of"great power balance",Cambodia will continue to deepen relations with China and play down differences with the US,opening up a new phase of diplomacyto establish more open and inclusive international relations of cooperation.

CambodiaHun ManetFive-corner strategygreat power balance2024 Cambodia-China People-to-People Ex-change Year

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广西社会科学院柬埔寨研究中心,广西南宁,530022

柬埔寨 洪玛奈 五角战略 "大国平衡" 中柬人文交流年

2024

东南亚纵横
广西社会科学院东南亚研究所 广西东南亚经济与政治研究中心

东南亚纵横

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.695
ISSN:1003-2479
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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