An Analysis and Forecast of ASEAN Countries'Economy(2023-2024)
Absrtact:In 2023,the economic growth of ASEAN countries failed to continue the strong recovery momentum of the previ-ous year as the growth rates were lower than those of 2022 and the expected target of the governments.From the perspective of demand structure,private consumption and government expenditure in ASEAN countries gradually increased,the fixed capital formation expanded,but import and export generally declined;from the perspective of supply structure,the three sectors(agricul-ture,manufacturing and service industries)in ASEAN countries maintained a recovery in general,but manufacturing industry in some of the countries shrunk;in terms of economic growth,the Philippines grew the fastest,followed by Vietnam,Indonesia,Ma-laysia,Thailand and Singapore.However,in the context of global economic turmoil,the macro-economy of major ASEAN coun-tries remained stable with the easing inflation,decreasing unemployment rates,shrinking fiscal deficits and improved balance of payments in most countries.Faced with the stagflation of the world economy,ASEAN countries adjusted their macroeconomic policies in a timely manner,increasing investment in infrastructure construction,and promoted industrial digitalization and green and low-carbon transformation,providinga new driving force for economic recovery in ASEAN.In 2024,the world economy will still be in a slow recovery and deep adjustment.The inflation is slowing down,electronic information industry is showing signs of recovery,cross-border tourism is growing rapidly,and emerging economies in Asia are still important growth poles of the global economy.ASEAN countries will benefit from the recovery of global trade and maintain a sustained economic recovery.Hence,it is expected that the economic growth will be faster than that of last year,but still face a series of severe challenges.
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