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菲律宾2023年回顾与2024年展望

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菲律宾的政治、经济和外交政策在2023年出现新动向,对该国发展趋势和东南亚地区局势的影响值得关注.菲律宾国内政局迅速演变,执政联盟内部矛盾逐渐公开;反对派和左翼议员大力炒作"反杜"议题,杜特尔特盟友数量锐减;小马科斯推出多项带有家族色彩的政策,继续扩大家族政治影响力.菲律宾宏观经济持续增长,增速在东盟国家中位居前列;第三产业强劲复苏,旅游、外包和海外劳工产业为经济继续增长提供动能;通货膨胀率高于预期,引发民众不满;农业和能源行业政策稳步落实,但见效尚需时日.小马科斯于年初访华,中菲双方签订多项合作协议,两国经贸合作逆势增长,但在管控南海分歧方面遭遇挑战.菲律宾大力发展与美国、日本、澳大利亚等国的关系,双边及多边安全合作不断深化,联合军演、巡逻规模扩大,频次增加,三国对菲律宾援助有显著增长.展望2024年,菲律宾政局将加速演变,马哈利卡主权基金可能成为政争焦点,选举暴力问题将对社会治理构成挑战;经济复苏的势头将继续受到全球不确定性的影响,遏制通货膨胀将得到民众普遍关注,支柱产业将受到地区局势和科技发展的挑战,重点产业政策的有效性和可持续性有待观察;菲律宾与美国盟友体系的绑定将继续加深,与中国的关系将受到南海局势的牵动,在中美两个大国间保持"平衡"、谋取国家利益最大化的难度会继续增加.
A Retrospect of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024 in the Philippines
The year 2023 saw many political,economic and diplomatic policy changes in the Philippines under the Marcos Jr.administration,whose influences have exceeded domestic boundaries and extended to regional and global levels.The domestic political landscape was in rapid evolution marked by the conflicts within the UniTeam;Duterte's political allies decreased sharply in numbers as the opposition and left-wing legislators vigorously promoted"anti-Duterte"agenda;Marcos Jr.continued rebrand-ing his family's political image through the introduction of"Bagong Pilipinas"and other policies which are reminiscent of his late father's administration.The Philippines'economic recovery remained stable and its growth rate was among the highest in ASEAN.The service sector is recovering strongly.Tourism,business processing outsourcing and overseas Filipino workers expe-dite the economic recovery.However,inflation is higher than expected and it leads to discontent among the public.Policies in the agriculture and energy sectors are in implementation but have yet to materialize and take effect.Marcos Jr.'s state visit to China created a good start for the Philippine-China relations.Economic and trade cooperation between the two countries grew,but terri-torial disputes in the South China Sea remained a challenge to both countries.The Philippines developed its relations with the United States,Japan and Australia,which resulted in deepening bilateral and multilateral security cooperation and more joint mili-tary exercises and patrols.Development assistance to the Philippines from these three countries also increased significantly.In 2024,the political landscape change will accelerate,the management of the Maharlika sovereign fund is likely to become another focus for political disputes,and the corruption and violence brought by the coming election will pose a challenge to governance;the momentum of economic recovery will continue to be jeopardized by global uncertainties.Coping with inflation will be a com-mon concern among the public,and service industry will be challenged by the regional tension and the development of AI.In ad-dition,the effectiveness and sustainability of policies in the agriculture and energy sector remain questionable;the Philippines will continue to bind with the U.S.alliance system and Philippine-China relations will be affected by maritime conflicts in the South China Sea,making it difficult for the Philippines to maintain a self-proclaimed independent foreign policy.

Philippine governanceFerdinand Marcos Jr.UniTeam AllianceBagong PilipinasU.S.-Philippine minilateral diplomacy

马宇晨

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北京大学外国语学院 北京,100871

菲律宾 国家治理 小马科斯 执政联盟 "新菲律宾" "美菲+"

国家社会科学基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项

LSYZD21016

2024

东南亚纵横
广西社会科学院东南亚研究所 广西东南亚经济与政治研究中心

东南亚纵横

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.695
ISSN:1003-2479
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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