Conflict Escalation and Crisis Response in Myanmar in 2023
Myanmar has been in turmoil since the sudden political change in 2021,and the situation continued to deteriorate on all fronts in 2023 with the Tatmadaw caught in multiple crises in the political,economic and social spheres,and resorting to various means in order to maintain its ruling position,stabilize the economic situation and seek a diplomatic breakthrough.Politi-cally,although the Myanmar State Administration Council(SAC)tried to maintain stability by reorganizing the government and cracking down on corruption,anti-military forces including the National Unity Government(NUG),Ethnic Armed Organizations(EAO)and the People's Defense Forces(PDF)allied themselves with each other,and the conflicts with the military continued to intensify,leading to frequent violence and ongoing armed conflicts throughout the country.The SAC has been embattled in deal-ing with the war,leading to the loss of effective govemance in some provinces and regions and the fragmentation of the national sovereignty structure.Economically,despite the SAC's efforts to adjust industrial strategies,balance trade,and regulate foreign ex-change,the economy has been seriously shadowed by politics,which has compelled SAC to take extreme measures to ensure its survival.In addition,international sanctions,intemal conflicts and currency depreciation have all resulted in a failure to continue the momentum of recovery and a serious downturn in the overall situation with a sharp decline in foreign trade and investment,and hardship for people's livelihoods.Diplomatically,relations between Myanmar and the United States and Western countries have spanned to worsen as the United States and Western countries intensify their economic sanctions and political isolation of Myanmar under the banner of democracy and human rights to change the political process in Myanmar.However,international conflicts and tensions have attracted global attention,which to a certain extent favors the survival of the military regime in Myan-mar in the interstices of the great power game.In order to seek international support,the Myanmar military regime took the initia-tive to approach Russia on the basis of maintaining friendly relations with the traditional powers of China and India.In 2023,ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus failed in effectiveness for ASEAN's internal attitudes towards the Myanmar issue went diver-gent;Myanmar's resignation as the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2026 was also a reluctant move.In 2024,politically,the military will face enormous insurgent pressure and internal security problems,making it difficult to fulfill its election promises;economi-cally,Myanmar's economy is expected to remain sluggish;diplomatically,despite the military government's use of hedging and balancing measures,it will face greater diplomatic challenges due to the escalation of sanctions by the U.S.and Westem countries.Overall,Myanmar is mired in multiple political,economicand diplomatic crises,and the road to the development in 2024 is still full of uncertainties.
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