Application of Fuzzy-Markov model in hierarchical prognosis of chronic kidney disease
AIM: To evaluate the hierarchical prognosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: 272 outpatient CKD patients were investigated. Fuzzy-Markov model including six states [CKD1 stage, CKD2 stage, CKD3 stage, CKD4 stage, CKD5 stage as well as death/ end-stage renal disease (ESRD) stage] was established. RESULTS: The mean following period was 2.0 years. Fuzzy transition rate from CKD1 stage to CKD2 stage, from CKD2 stage to CKD3 stage, from CKD3 stage to CKD4 stage, from CKD4 stage to CKD5 stage and from CKD5 stage to death/ESRD stage were 15.1%/year, 14.0%/year, 15.7%/year, 16.4%/year and 51.5%/year respectively. The fuzzy mean duration in CKD1 stage, CKD2 stage, CKD3 stage, CKD4 stage and CKD5 stage were 12.5 years, 7.2 years, 4.5 years, 2.0 years and 0.9 years respectively. Fuzzy mean renal survival time or dialysis free period was 27.1 years. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of severity and the treatment of CKD patients should be made according to the prognosis of different stage in CKD patients.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
