首页|以树轮宽度重建公元1558年以来华山5~6月平均温度及20世纪中后期升温

以树轮宽度重建公元1558年以来华山5~6月平均温度及20世纪中后期升温

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通过对秦岭东端华山地区油松树木年轮宽度序列的分析研究,探讨了华山地区油松对气候环境响应的敏感性,结果表明在华山地区油松对气温和降水的响应均高于华山松,与 5~6月平均温度相关较高,且通过了0.01显著性信度检验.在此基础上,我们重建了华山地区 1558~2006年间 5~6月的平均温度,重建序列的方差解释量达到41% .结果显示: 华山过去449年中,大部分年份 5~6月平均温度在平均值附近波动,变幅不大; 重建序列可与秦岭南五台 5~7月温度序列进行良好对比,其年际间相关系数达到了0.49(N=246, p<0.0001).华山地区20世纪 20~30年代初的暖期略偏低; 20世纪30年代中期至50年代是整个重建时段中低温持续时间较长的时段; 20世纪60年代之后,气温波动平缓; 从20世纪70年代开始快速升温,对全球变暖有较强响应.
TREE-RING WIDTH BASED MAY~JUNE MEAN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION FOR HUASHAN MOUNTAIN SINCE A.D. 1558 AND 20TH CENTURY WARMING
Global wanning was widely accepted in the 20th century,but there were diversities in different regions. This paper analyzed the background of the regional response to global change in the Huashan region of Eastern Qinling Mountains by tree ring. Temperature changes inferred from the proxy data, especially from tree-ring data have been studied on the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we provided a tree-ring-width chronology of A. D. 1528 ~ 2006 of Pinus tabulaeformis in Huashan(34°28'N, 110°04'E),the eastern end of Qinling Mountains, which was an important geographic demarcation line in the east of Central China. Correlation analysis showed that the tree-ring-width chronology significantly correlated with the average temperature of May ~ June. Based on this result, we reconstructed the mean May ~ June temperature of A. D. 1558 ~2006 using tree-ring index in the Huashan region. The explained variance reached 41%, and 40% after adjusting degree of freedom. Both "Jackknife" and "Bootstrap" methods were used to estimate the reliability of the regression function. All these statistics based on above two methods were close,which displayed the function was reliable. The reconstruction displayed the fluctuation of temperature in this region. There were 120 years of high temperature,accounted for 26. 7% of the total reconstructed series,and 129 years of low temperature,accounted for 28.7%. The frequency of high temperature year and low temperature year was almost equal over all the reconstructed period. And there were two obvious long warm periods,i. e. ,A. D. 1698 ~1708 and A. D. 1749 ~ 1777. The long-low-temperature period reconstructed occurred from the early 1930s to 1950s of the 20th century, with the lowest temperature of 12. 0℃ occurring in 1933. Since the 1970s, temperature has been increased rapidly, which agreed well with global warming of the late 20th century. The reconstructed temperature of Huashan was significantly correlated with the reconstructed temperature of Nanwutai(r = 0. 49 ,N =246,p < 0. 0001 ). Both can also be well compared with an 11-year moving average(r = 0. 41,N = 236, p < 0. 0001 ). Two curves showed a synchronous warming trend, which proved our result to be reliable. Thus,Pinus tabulaeformis has a great potential for temperature reconstruction in this region.

HuashanPinus tabulaeformistree-ring widthMay ~June mean temperature

刘禹、田沁花、宋慧明、孙军艳、Hans W.Linderholm、Deliang Chen、蔡秋芳、他维媛、雷莺

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中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安,710075

西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程系,西安,710049

中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049

Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,40530 Gothenburg,Sweden

陕西省环境工程评估中心,西安,710068

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华山 油松 树轮宽度 5~6月平均温度重建

国家自然科学基金杰出青年科学基金国家自然科学基金重大项目中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金国家科技部资助项目

40525004408900512004CB7202002006CB400503

2009

第四纪研究
中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 中国第四纪研究委员会

第四纪研究

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.939
ISSN:1001-7410
年,卷(期):2009.29(5)
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