首页|秦岭地区多点树轮序列记录的春末夏初气温变化与北半球海温关系的初步分析

秦岭地区多点树轮序列记录的春末夏初气温变化与北半球海温关系的初步分析

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本文采用主成分分析方法提取了秦岭中、东部5个样点树轮资料的区域主成分年表,其中第一主成分PC1年表的方差累积贡献率为58.37%,能够较好地代表秦岭中东部地区年轮变化的共同特征.对5个站点观测气温平均值和PC1反映的区域尺度气候信息进行分析,结果显示两者均与秦岭-黄淮地区5~7月温度场存在大范围-致相关区,相关系数r高于0.5 (p<0.01).表明PC1年表可以反映大区域尺度上过去122年(1885~2006年)春末夏初(5~7月)气温的总体特征.在公共时段内(1951 ~2006年)PC1和观测资料与北半球海温场的分析显示,两者均与热带西太平洋和30°~ 50°N附近我国近海至日本暖流区呈显著相关,且与大西洋西印度群岛东部海域呈现一定程度的遥相关,相关型表明当3个相关区海温偏高时,PC1指数偏低,研究区气温偏高;与热带西太平洋的相关区域延伸至西太平洋暖池,反映研究区气温变化与暖池区海温异常也有较密切的联系.在更长时间尺度上对PC1指示的气温变化与北半球海表温的分期研究(1885 ~1950年和1885~2006年)发现,两个阶段PC1指数与热带西太平洋海温均显著相关,但与1951 ~2006相比,后两个阶段与我国近海、日本暖流区和大西洋海域海表温之间的关系减弱,表明热带西太平洋SST对研究区5~7月气温的影响较为稳定,但其他海域SST与研究区气温的遥相关关系存在年代差异.
HISTORICAL LATE-SPRING-TO-EARLY-SUMMER TEMPERATURE AT QINLING MOUNTAIN RANGE INFERRED FROM MULTI-SITE TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES ,AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
Tree-ring chronologies from five sites in the middle-east part of the Qinling Mountains were analyzed for regional common information using principal component analysis ( PCA ) method. The first PC ( PCI) explained the most (58. 37% )of the total variances of the five site chronologies, and hence represented a regional pattern of tree growths. PCI chronology was highly negatively correlated with the May-July mean temperature averaged from five nearby meteorological stations. Correlations of meteorological records and the PCI chronology with May-July grided temperature data ( Climatic Research Unit, CRU) were calculated to investigate if they were capable of representing regional large-scale temperature variability during 1951 ~2006. Both were significantly correlated with CRU May-July temperature over large areas of the Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Basin (short for QMHB) .which confirmed that observed records and the PCI may reflect the regional May-July temperature variability in the QMHB. We thus consider that the PCI chronology from 1885~2006 was representative of a large area temperature history.The PCI and the meteorological records were used to investigate the influence of Northern Hemisphere SST (NHSST)on the regional temperature variability in the common period 1951 ~ 2006. The coincident significant correlation with NHSST were observed for the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean and 30° ~ 50°N Ocean region of offshore China and Japan sea warm current,and both were also correlated with the SST of West Indies of Atlantic. This result indicated that the higher SST of the above ocean domains, possibly the lower PCI and the higher temperature of QMHB region. Moreover,it suggested the possible close connection of regional temperature variations to the Warm Pool SST abnormal from the extended correlation with the warm pool in the Western Pacific. Over longer time-scale, the similar correlation patterns with SST for the western tropical Pacific Ocean were also found during the two periods ( 1885 - 1950 and 1885 ~ 2006 ) ,suggesting a close and stable connection of the regional temperature with the western tropical Pacific SST. Comparison with the weakly correlated with the offshore China, Japan sea warm current and Atlantic domains, seemed to suggest the difference of the SST domains related to regional temperature during the different period.

the Qinling Mountainstree-ring widthtemperature variabilitysea surface temperature( SST)

田沁花、周秀骥、刘禹、赵平

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中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081

中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075

中国气象科学研究院灾害天气圆家重点实验室,北京100081

西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院,西安710049

国家气象信息中心,北京 100081

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秦岭 树木年轮 气温变化 表层海水温度

国家自然科学基金青年基金中国博士后特别资助项目中国博士后面上基金项日国家自然科学基金重大项目

410010582010031942009046042440890052

2011

第四纪研究
中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 中国第四纪研究委员会

第四纪研究

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.939
ISSN:1001-7410
年,卷(期):2011.31(5)
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