THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE:RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT
Since the 1970s,global climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern.This paper provides a brief review of climate change predictions over recent decades,and synthesizes potential environmental impacts arising from global warming.In addition,it provides an overview of environmental conditions in East Asia during key warm intervals throughout the Cenozoic Era including the mid-Holocene,mid-Pliocene,mid-Miocene,and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.Due to significant warming observed in recent decades and the anticipated increase in carbon emissions,the prevailing consensus leans toward further warming in the future.The impacts of global warming on the environment are profound,manifesting in accelerated water cycles,cryospheric melting,sea level rise,and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Insights from the key warm periods in the geological past,supported by numerous geological records and numerical simulations,indicate that global warming shifts the summer monsoon rain belt northward,resulting in increased precipitation in East Asia.This increase in monsoon precipitation is governed by both thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms.Thermodynamically,there is an increase in atmospheric water vapor content,while dynamically,the intertropical convergence zone migrates northward and the western Pacific subtropical high expands in a warmer climate.Furthermore,analyses of geological records indicate that,contrary to popular belief,global warming has historically yielded more positive outcomes than negative ones,not only in East Asia but also across various regions worldwide.From both philosophical and geological perspectives,the expectation of an unchanging climate is unrealistic.In the future,the climate will either trend towards cooling,driven by solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere,or warming,propelled by greenhouse gas emissions.Recent decades have highlighted the challenges in accurately predicting and projecting climate change.Uncertainty primarily arises from the structural framework of climate models,natural variability within the climate system,and future greenhouse gas emissions.These areas require focused attention in future research,with particular emphasis on advancing the study of natural variability within the climate system.
past global warminggeological recordsEast-Asian summer monsoonatmospheric CO2 concentration
万方数据
维普
