Passenger Flow Forecasting Technology for Initial Operation of Urban Rail Transit
Passenger flow forecasting for the initial operation stage of a new rail transit line is fundamental for operational safety assessment and organizational preparation.This study analyzes the characteristics of forecasting work in terms of the forecasting period,research objects,basic modeling data,and forecasting models.The technical difficulties in carrying out such forecasting work are also summarized.Considering the characteristics and difficulties of forecasting,this study introduces a new forecasting framework,and the key procedures in the framework are then explained,including data collection,traffic surveys,analysis of the operational characteristics of urban transport,travel demand forecasting from macroscopic and intermediate perspectives,forecasting evaluation,and sensitivity analysis.Finally,the study also discusses main research points of forecasting work with respect to network passenger flow indices,the impact of a new line on the existing network,and the necessary concerns of essential stations.It is suggested that the forecasting work should focus on the current state of urban systems.Thus,it is essential to collect and understand the current information on urban traffic and the city itself and to analyze short-term development trends.Because the macroscopic demand analysis models may have lower accuracy,it is also necessary to construct a thematic model for rail transit systems based on urban transport macroscopic demand analysis by conducting traffic surveys.The results of this study can provide references for technical methods and research content of passenger flow forecasting in the initial operation stage.
urban rail transitinitial operationpassenger flow forecastingnew metro linedemand forecasting model
万方数据
维普
