基于MaxEnt模型预测食蚊鱼在我国的潜在地理分布
Prediction of potential distribution of Gambusia affinis in China based on MaxEnt model
万朝阳 1方康 2吴金明 2牟希东 3董芳 2张辉4
作者信息
- 1. 中国水产科学研究院长江水产研究所,农业农村部淡水生物多样性保护重点实验室, 武汉 430223;华中农业大学水产学院,武汉 430070
- 2. 中国水产科学研究院长江水产研究所,农业农村部淡水生物多样性保护重点实验室, 武汉 430223
- 3. 中国水产科学研究院珠江水产研究所,农业农村部外来入侵水生生物防控重点实验室, 广州 510380
- 4. 中国水产科学研究院长江水产研究所,农业农村部淡水生物多样性保护重点实验室, 武汉 430223;中国水产科学研究院珠江水产研究所,农业农村部外来入侵水生生物防控重点实验室, 广州 510380;华中农业大学水产学院,武汉 430070
- 折叠
摘要
随着我国外来鱼类养殖规模和观赏鱼产业规模持续发展扩大,外来鱼类的生态风险也日益增加,研判外来鱼类的潜在地理分布对防控生物入侵具有重要意义.本研究以典型外来鱼类食蚊鱼(Gambusia affinis)为研究对象,采用最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt),结合131 个食蚊鱼有效分布点位数据以及11 个可能影响其地理分布的环境因子,预测分析了食蚊鱼在我国的潜在地理分布及其影响因素.结果显示:(1)MaxEnt模型对食蚊鱼潜在地理分布预测的精度较高(AUC = 0.977),影响食蚊鱼潜在地理分布的主要环境因子为年平均最低水温(39.0%)、人口密度(32.8%)、最干月降雨量(10.2%)和海拔(9.4%);(2)食蚊鱼在我国潜在地理分布面积为 175.75×104 km2,主要集中在珠江流域、东南诸河和淮河流域、长江流域中下游以及西南诸河流域的云南区域,预测在未来环境温度升高的情况下,食蚊鱼有进一步扩散的风险.为防控食蚊鱼以及其他外来鱼类的入侵,建议完善外来鱼类贸易和养殖的行业规范.
Abstract
The increasing aquaculture of exotic fishes and the expansion of the ornamental fish industry have increased biological invasion risk.It is of great significance to analyze the potential geographical distribution of exotic fishes to prevent and control of biological invasions.This study used MaxEnt model(based on 132 pres-ence points and nine environmental factors)to predict the geographical distribution of Gambusia affinis in Chi-na.In the same time,the environmental and ecological factors which are significant to its distribution were also explored.The results showed that:(1)The area under the model's receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value was 0.977,indicating that the simulation effect of the model was good.The dominant environ-mental factors affecting the geographical distribution of G.affinis are the annual average minimum water tempera-ture(39.0%),population density(32.8%),precipitation of driest month(10.2%)and altitude(9.4%);(2)The potential geographical distribution area of G.affinis in China is 175.75×104 km2,mainly located in the Pearl River Basin,Southeast River Basin,Huai River Basin,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in China.Climate change is expected to increase the risk of G.affinis invasion.In order to prevent and control the invasion of G.affinis and other exotic fishes,it is recommended to improve the industry regula-tions for the trade and breeding of exotic fishes.
关键词
外来鱼类/生物入侵/物种分布模型/潜在地理分布/生物多样性Key words
exotic fish/biological invasion/species distribution model/potential geographical distribution/biodi-versity引用本文复制引用
基金项目
农业农村部外来入侵水生生物防控重点实验室开放基金(20220302)
农业农村部长江流域渔政监督管理办公室政府采购服务项目(CJBRKT2022-05)
农业部科技教育司项目(13220168)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据