电网技术2024,Vol.48Issue(4) :1393-1402.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1337

新能源预测纳入备用对平衡和消纳的影响研究

Research on Influences to Power Balance & New Energy Consumption of Taken-into-account Proportion of New Energy's Predicted Output in Day-ahead Power Reserve

李增辉 于钊 孙大雁 王超 蔡宇
电网技术2024,Vol.48Issue(4) :1393-1402.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1337

新能源预测纳入备用对平衡和消纳的影响研究

Research on Influences to Power Balance & New Energy Consumption of Taken-into-account Proportion of New Energy's Predicted Output in Day-ahead Power Reserve

李增辉 1于钊 1孙大雁 1王超 1蔡宇1
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作者信息

  • 1. 国家电力调度控制中心,北京市西城区 100031
  • 折叠

摘要

高渗透率新能源深刻影响了日前电力平衡模式,新能源纳入日前电力系统备用面临高峰电力平衡不确定性增大、保供与新能源消纳统筹难度增大等问题.为此,综合分析了新能源纳入日前电力系统备用比例与电力保供、新能源消纳的关系.首先,研究了新能源纳入比例与电力保供的关系,提出了基于保供可靠性的新能源纳入比例上限的数学解析公式,进一步分析了影响新能源纳入比例上限的关键因素;然后,研究了新能源纳入比例与新能源消纳的关系,提出了基于消纳需要的新能源纳入比例下限的数学解析公式;最后,基于新能源纳入比例上、下限,提出了一种用以量化反映电网保供和消纳难度的综合指数.实例分析及应用验证所提方法的科学性和实用性.

Abstract

New energy with high permeability is profoundly changing the Day-ahead power balancing method,bringing problems such as power supply uncertainty at peak load,difficulties in overall management of power supply,and new energy consumption,due to which this paper proposes a Day-ahead power balancing method,in which new energy's predicted output is proportionally taken into account,considering both power supply protection and new energy consumption.Firstly,the relationship between the Taken-Into-Account Proportion of New Energy's Predicted Output(TIAPNEPO)in day-ahead power balancing reserve and power supply protection is analyzed,based on which a formula describing TIAPNEPO's upper limit is proposed,and key factors influencing the upper limit are also specially researched.Secondly,the relationship between TIAPNEPO and new energy consumption is analyzed,based on which a formula describing TIAPNEPO's lower limit is proposed.Lastly,based on TIAPNEPO's upper and lower limits,a comprehensive index is proposed to quantify the difficulty in the overall management of power supply protection and new energy consumption.All conclusions in this paper are verified using real power production data and true demonstrations.

关键词

新能源/电力保供/新能源消纳/日前电力平衡/系统备用

Key words

new energy/power-supply protection/new energy consumption/day-ahead power balance/power system reserve

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出版年

2024
电网技术
国家电网公司

电网技术

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.821
ISSN:1000-3673
被引量2
参考文献量22
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