Under the goal of"double carbon",the gradual replacement of the traditional fossil energy sources such as coal by renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic is an inevitable trend to realize the energy transition of power systems.The renewable energy technology diffusion study is essential to simulate and analyze this trend.However,most of the existing renewable energy technology diffusion studies focus on the macroscopic diffusion models at the general level while ignoring the complexity of the impacts of the microscopic and complex game processes and interactions within the power producer groups on the macroscopic diffusion.Based on the perspective of the system science and the game theory,this paper constructs a complex network based on the social relations between the power producer groups and conducts an evolutionary game with the characteristics of the limited rationality with incomplete information.The dynamic evolution process of renewable energy technology diffusion is analyzed from point to surface,from the update of the individual power producer's generation strategies to the logic of the evolution of the power producers'group relations.Based on the two typical complex network scenarios,the paper analyzes the effects of the power producers'relations,the policy standards,and the market price factors on the evolution of renewable energy technology diffusion.The results may provide a theoretical support for the government to guide the diffusion of renewable energy technology in the power generation enterprises,and also a useful reference for the wide application of evolutionary game theory in the energy industry.
关键词
可再生能源/技术扩散/复杂网络/演化博弈
Key words
renewable energy/technology diffusion/complex network/evolutionary game
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