High-dimensional Uncertainty Scenario Generation Method for Hydro-wind-solar Multi-energy Complementary System Considering Spatio-temporal Correlation
Affected by complex factors such as high dimension of variables and random correlation of time and space,how to generate annual runoff and wind power photovoltaic output coupling scene sequence is a key problem for water and wind integrated multi-energy complementary planning and long-term dispatching in the southwest basin.This paper proposes a method for generating high-dimensional coupled uncertain scenes of river basin water and landscape,which considers the spatio-temporal correlation.Based on the historical data of many years and long series as input,firstly,a time series correlation model based on a seasonal Markov chain is constructed to capture the monthly state transition characteristics of runoff and wind power generation capacity,and secondly,a C-vine model based on mixed Copula function connection is constructed to characterize the spatial correlation of water and wind heterogeneous energy in the basin.Based on the results of spatiotemporal correlation modeling and Monte Carlo sampling,a high-dimensional coupled scene set generation method for water and landscape multi-energy complementary systems is proposed.Finally,the cascade power stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River and the wind power stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River in China are examples of applications to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
multi-energy complementary systemspatio-temporal correlationscenario generationMarkov chainCopula function
万方数据
维普
