Probabilistic Assessment of Power Flow Risk in Inter-provincial Electricity Spot Market Considering Source-load Uncertainty
The penetration of renewable energy is gradually increasing in the context of new power system construction,and the uncertainty of the source-load side increases the risk of inter-provincial power spot market operation.Aiming at this problem,a probabilistic assessment method of the current tidal risk of inter-provincial power spot market liaison line that considers source-load bilateral uncertainty is proposed.First,the impact of source-load bilateral uncertainty on inter-provincial electricity spot market clearing is analyzed,and a joint source-load uncertainty model is established to provide a data basis for market clearing.Then,a two-layer optimization model for inter-provincial electricity spot market clearing is designed to calculate the tidal clearing model results for inter-provincial liaison lines.Finally,to characterize the risk of source-load bilateral uncertainty to the security of power market clearing,three metrics are proposed to assess the uncertainty risk of the contact line currents:the capacity occupancy rate,the stability of the current probability,and the risk of the current stability.Simulation tests were conducted using data from a provincial power company,and the results were compared with the evaluation results under different uncertainty modeling methods and different confidence intervals to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
万方数据
维普
