Towards 2035:Forecast and Allocation Strategies for Higher Education Resource Demand Based on Changes in School-age Population
The National Education Conference in September 2024 set the goal of "building a powerful country in education by 2035". In order to achieve this goal better,it is necessary to analyze the situation of the school-age population from now until around 2035 and the corresponding resource policies and development plans. Based on official data,this paper predicts the scale of higher education school-age population and the resource allocation situation from 2024 to 2040. It is found that the total scale of higher education in the future will show an inverted "U" shape development trend and the social demand for school-running resources will no longer increase monotonously,and the task of allocating higher education resources will be more challenging than before. According to the forecast,there will be a peak in resource demand for higher education in China around 2035. For example,compared with 2023,1,083,300 full-time teachers for regular higher education institutions must be added in the peak year. But by 2040,compared with the peak,the demand for full-time teachers for regular higher education institutions in China will decrease by 837,500,the total investment in higher education will be reduced by 646.134 billion yuan,the demand for university building area will be reduced by 53,652 million square meters,and the demand for teaching and scientific research instruments will be reduced by 87.756 billion yuan. Based on the dynamic demand for higher education resources allocation,the following optimization pathways are proposed:during the "period with abundant students",it is essential to seize historical opportunities to carry out reform experiments to promote the diversification of higher education;during the "continuous rising period",it is necessary to take multiple measures to maintain original characteristics and alleviate supply-demand conflicts;during the "sharp decline period",it is supposed to implement strategies for streamlining and optimization,so as to respond positively to future population changes by fully exploiting the potential of colleges and universities to cultivate talents,and by appropriately downsizing the scale of higher education;during the "strategic opportunity period",it is crucial to aim at the strategic goal of building a leading country in education for resource allocation and correctly handle significant relationships such as supporting country strategies and meeting the needs of people.
population changeshigher education school-age populationscale of higher educationallocation of higher education resources
万方数据
维普
