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人口转变下人力资本红利的国际比较分析

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在人口结构转变过程中,中国人口红利的机会窗口与其他国家特别是发达国家有很大的不同,其中很重要的一点是体现在不同人口年龄组之间的人力资本红利及其构成与发达国家分布趋势不同.本文利用第七次人口普查数据和国别数据测算中国与发达国家在不同人口年龄组中多维度人力资本红利的差异,观察中国人力资本与发展阶段的新特征,分析老龄化过程中如何充分利用年轻队列高人力资本的特征,通过政策调整充分挖掘人口转变下的"人力资本红利",把握中国经济发展的机会窗口期.
International comparative analysis of human capital dividend under demographic transition
In the process of demographic transformation,the opportunity window of China's demographic dividend is very different from that of other countries,especially developed countries.One important point is that the human capital dividend and its composition between different population agegroups are different from the distribution trend of developed countries.This paper uses the seventh population census data and country data to measure the differences in multi-dimensional human capital dividends between China and developed countries in differ-ent population age groups,observe the new characteristics of China's human capital and development stage,analyze how to make full use of the characteristics of high human capital in the young cohort in the aging process,fully tap the"human capital dividend"under the demographic transition through policy adjustment,and grasp the window of opportunity for China's economic development.

屈小博、吕佳宁

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中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京 100000

中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京 102400

人力资本红利 经济发展 国际比较 劳动力 人口结构 人口老龄化

中国社会科学院国情调研重大项目国家社会科学基金重大项目

2024GQZD00823&ZD108

2024

东岳论丛
山东社会科学院

东岳论丛

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.487
ISSN:1003-8353
年,卷(期):2024.45(10)