首页|基于风险矩阵的断层监测行为异常风险评估

基于风险矩阵的断层监测行为异常风险评估

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强震通常会造成可测量的永久性地表位移,实时监测断层带活动,可为地震危险性判定提供有效参考数据.为评估断层监测数据加速、异常上升等异常行为的风险,引入风险矩阵法,构建断层监测行为异常风险评估体系,利用Borda序值法和层次分析法,选择并确定各风险要素及其权重.基于该方法,对2023年12月新疆巴里坤石人子断层监测行为异常风险进行评估,结果表明:该断层风险等级为Ⅲ级,评定为中等风险.研究结果可为断层监测数据行为异常风险评估提供参考,有助于后续跟踪分析和现场核实工作的开展,对地震趋势判定具有一定价值.
Risk assessment of abnormal behaviors in fault monitoring based on risk matrix
Strong earthquakes usually cause measurable permanent surface displacement,and real-time monitoring of fault zone activity can provide effective reference data for earthquake hazard assessment.The risk matrix method is introduced to construct a risk assessment system to evaluate the risks of abnormal behaviors such as acceleration and abnormal rise in fault monitoring data.The Borda ordinal value method and analytic hierarchy process are used to select and determine each risk element and its weight.This method,evaluated the risk of abnormal behavior on the Shirenzi Fault in Balikun,Xinjiang in December 2023.The results showed that the risk level of the fault was Grade Ⅲ,rated as moderate risk.The research results can provide a reference for the risk assessment of abnormal behavior in fault monitoring data,which is helpful for subsequent tracking analysis and on-site verification work,and has certain value for earthquake trend determination.

fault monitoringrisk matrixBorda ranking methodrisk evaluationthree-dimensional creep

米娜·阿力哈别克、卓瑞祺、塔依尔·喀哈尔、张录、周康云、侯赛因·赛买提、木巴拉克·江布尔拜、郑天一

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中国新疆维吾尔自治区 839000 哈密地震监测中心站

中国乌鲁木齐 830011 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局

中国新疆维吾尔自治区 830011 中国地震局乌鲁木齐中亚地震研究所

断层监测 风险矩阵 Borda序值法 风险评估 三维蠕变

2024

地震地磁观测与研究
中国地震台网中心 中国地震局地球物理研究所 中国地震学会地震观测技术专业委员会

地震地磁观测与研究

影响因子:0.248
ISSN:1003-3246
年,卷(期):2024.45(5)