Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle
Firstly,we choose 6 sites—Zhoushan,Ningde,Xiamen,Hongkong,Haikou,and Gaoxiong in the south-eastern coastal areas in China as the research samples.Then we suppose the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone are the potential sources of the earthquake-induced tsunami.We estimate the uncer-tainty of the magnitude by the Generalized Extreme Value method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution.By prob-abilistic statistics,we get the predominant distribution of the focal depths of the potential earthquakes in these two subduction zones.By fitting the function of slip angle's distribution and by coupling the uncertainty of magnitude,focal depth,and slip angle,we estimate that the potential earthquakes in the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone would induce tsunamis whose wave height exceeds 0.4 m at the 6 sites in next 30,50 and 100 years.
万方数据
维普
