基于离散元Runout预测的张家湾滑坡风险评估
QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK IN ZHANGJIAWAN BASED ON DISCRETE ELEMENT RUNOUT PREDICTION
董阳丹 1魏占玺 2董建辉3
作者信息
- 1. 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都 610059
- 2. 青海省环境地质重点实验室,西宁 810007;青海省地质环境保护与灾害防治工程技术研究中心,西宁 810007
- 3. 四川省非饱和土力学特性及工程技术省高校工程研究中心,成都 610106;成都大学建筑与土木工程学院,成都 610106
- 折叠
摘要
滑坡是我国最重要的地质灾害之一,其每年造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失,故滑坡风险评估对防治滑坡灾害、降低社会经济损失具有重要意义.基于现场野外调查,利用离散元软件 UDEC 对西宁市张家湾滑坡进行Runout预测分析,结合动力分析与条件分析法对张家湾滑坡进行风险评估.结果表明:张家湾滑坡在天然工况下为稳定状态,在暴雨工况下为欠稳定状态,其最远移距为 55m,最大影响范围为 1.106×105 m2;张家湾滑坡在暴雨工况下的失稳概率为 0.459;张家湾滑坡一旦在暴雨情况下发生失稳,人员伤亡风险值为 46 人,根据滑坡灾害社会接受水平曲线判定其属于不可接受范围;经济损失风险值为 5 180.88 万元.根据经济损失风险等级进行判断其属于第 5 等级.
Abstract
Landslide is one of the most important geological disasters in China,which causes a large number of casualties and property losses every year,so landslide risk assessment is of great significance to prevent and control landslide disasters and reduce social and economic losses.Based on field investigation,Runout prediction analysis of Zhangjiawan landslide in Xining City is carried out by using discrete element software UDEC,and the risk assessment of Zhangjiawan landslide is carried out by combining dynamic analysis and conditional analysis.The results show that the Zhangjiawan landslide is basically stable under natural conditions and understable under heavy rain conditions,with the maximum displacement of 55 m and the maximum influence range of 1.106×105 m2.The instability probability of Zhangjiawan landslide under rainstorm condition is 0.459.Once Zhangjiawan landslide is unstable under heavy rain,the risk value of casualties is 46 people,and according to the curve of social acceptance level of landslide disaster,it belongs to the unacceptable range.The risk value of economic loss was 51.808 8 million yuan.According to the risk level of economic loss,it belongs to level 5.
关键词
张家湾滑坡/风险评估/离散元/RunoutKey words
Zhangjiawan landslides/risk assessment/Discrete element/Runout引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据