临沧云县慢垒河流域泥石流发育特征及危险性评价
CHARACTERISTICS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MANLEI RIVER BASIN OF YUN COUNTY,LINCANG
郭宏涛 1郭婷婷 1汪木林 1周旭萌 2张智伟3
作者信息
- 1. 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明 650093
- 2. 云南地矿地质工程有限公司,昆明 650041
- 3. 华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司,昆明 650214
- 折叠
摘要
1988年"11·6"耿马地震后,慢垒河流域两侧山体发育多处滑坡、崩塌灾害,加之人类活动的影响,形成丰富物源,导致流域内泥石流活动逐渐频繁,严重危害幸福集镇规划区居民的生命财产.因此,对慢垒河泥石流进行危险性评估刻不容缓.本文在慢垒河泥石流发育特征的基础上,基于模糊层次分析法和刘希林评价模型对其开展危险性评价.研究表明:(1)慢垒河流域受地震影响,诱发了大量次生地质灾害,导致松散物源储量增加,在暴雨或连续降雨条件激发下,易爆发泥石流灾害.(2)慢垒河泥石流处于发展期,易发程度为"易发",两种评价模型10～50 a 一遇泥石流危险等级均为中度危险,但在评定100 a-遇的泥石流危险等级时存在差异,刘希林评价模型为高度危险,而模糊层次分析为中度危险,结合慢垒河实际情况,综合评定其10～100 a的泥石流危险等级为中度危险.
Abstract
Following the"11.6"Gengma earthquake in 1988,the Manlei River basin experienced extensive landslide and collapse disasters on both sides of its mountains.These,combined with human activities,provided a rich source of materials,leading to an increase in debris flow activities within the basin,severely endangering the lives and properties of residents in the Xingfu Township planning area.Consequently,assessing the hazard of debris flows in the Manlei River is of urgent necessity.Based on the characteristics of debris flow development in the Manlei River,this paper conducts a hazard assessment using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP)and the Liu Xilin evaluation model.The study reveals that:(1)the Manlei River basin,affected by the earthquake,triggered numerous secondary geological disasters,leading to an increased accumulation of loose material sources.Under conditions of heavy rain or continuous rainfall,this significantly raises the likelihood of debris flow disasters;(2)the debris flows in the Manlei River are in a developmental phase,with a predisposition to"frequent occurrences."For events expected to occur every 10 to 50 years,both evaluation models rate the debris flow hazard as moderate.However,discrepancies arise in the hazard level assessment for 100-year events,with the Liu Xilin model classifying it as highly dangerous,while the FAHP considers it to be moderate.Taking into account the actual conditions of the Manlei River,the debris flow hazard level for events occurring every 10 to 100 years is comprehensively assessed as moderate.
关键词
慢垒河流域/泥石流/危险性评价/刘希林评价模型/模糊层次分析法Key words
Manlei river basin/debris flow/hzard assessment/Liu Xilin evaluation model/fuzzy hierarchical analysis method引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据