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俄乌冲突、美国印太战略新发展与国际秩序

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俄乌冲突不仅对大国关系造成严重冲击,还对冷战后的美国霸权和美国主导的国际秩序形成公开挑战,预示着后冷战时代已经结束,国际局势的不确定性加剧.冲突的爆发和持续加剧了美国对国际局势的担忧,中俄在经贸、外交等方面合作的深化进一步引发了美国的疑虑.俄乌冲突没有从根本上改变拜登政府对印太地区的重视,美国仍然将中国视为长期的、全方位的战略对手,加速推进印太战略.美国不再满足于以关岛和日本军事基地为核心的军事部署,试图推进更加灵活的分布式前沿军事部署,避免军力过度集中,以提升美军的生存、威慑与反击能力.美国通过将美日印澳四方安全机制升级为首脑级安全对话机制,利用种族文化亲近感组建美英澳安全伙伴关系,搭建美日韩、美日澳、美日菲三边安全网络等防务合作,夯实和拓展以美国为中心的小多边安全网络.同时,美国还积极推动北约的印太转向,强化对华尖端和军事技术的封锁,减少关键供应链的对华依赖,确保供应链安全.俄乌冲突与美国印太战略推动了国际政治秩序的分化和阵营化,使国际经济秩序破碎化和安全化,令国际安全秩序走向军事化和军备化.大国关系的竞争性、对抗性和国际秩序的不确定性进一步加剧,为避免国际秩序陷入可能的失序,国际社会应携手努力,寻求俄乌冲突的政治解决方案,尽早结束冲突.中美应当加强高层接触与战略沟通,共同推动国际秩序的平稳发展.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict,New Development of U.S.Indo-Pacific Strategy and International Order
The Russia-Ukraine conflict not only caused huge damage and economic losses to both sides of the conflict,but also had a serious impact on the relations between major countries and the international order.It also posed an open challenge to the U.S.hegemony and the U.S.led international order after the Cold War,indicating that the post-Cold War era has ended,the international order has gradually moved from cooperation to competition among major countries,and the uncertainty of the international situation has increased.The outbreak and continuation of the conflict have intensified the U.S.concerns about the international situation.The Biden administration is highly skeptical of China-Russia cooperation in multiple fields and increasingly concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not changed the attention of the Biden government to the Indo-Pacific region,and the U.S.still regards China as a long-term,all-round strategic opponent.The Biden administration is accelerating the implementation of the Indo-Pacific strategy with the Taiwan issue as its security core.U.S.is no longer satisfied with military deployments centered around Guam and Japanese military bases,and is attempting to advance more flexible and diverse frontline military deployments.The U.S.actively builds and enhances multilateral security networks such as the QUAD,AUKUS,U.S.-Japan-ROK,U.S.-Japan-Australia,and U.S.-Japan-Philippines.The U.S.is also actively promoting NATO's shift towards Indo-Pacific,strengthening the blockade of cutting-edge and military technology against China,reducing dependence on Chinese products,and ensuring supply chain security.The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S.Indo-Pacific strategy have led to the alignment of the international political order,the fragmentation of the international economic order and the militarization of the international security order.The competitiveness and antagonism of major country relations,as well as the uncertainty of the international order,have further intensified.In order to avoid the international order falling into disorder,the international community should work together to find a political solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and end the conflict as soon as possible.China and the U.S.should strengthen high-level contacts and strategic communication,prevent slipping into the new Cold War,and jointly promote the stable development of the international order.

Russia-Ukraine ConflictIndo-Pacific StrategyChina-U.S.RelationsInternational OrderRussia-U.S.Relations

韦宗友、汤杰

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复旦大学美国研究中心

复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

俄乌冲突 印太战略 中美关系 国际秩序 俄美关系

国家社科基金重大研究专项

22VHQ00

2024

俄罗斯东欧中亚研究
中国社会科学院 俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

俄罗斯东欧中亚研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.309
ISSN:1671-8461
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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