The Impacts of U.S.-European Sanctions on Russia's Economic Growth:A Two-Stage Comparative Analysis Based on SDID Model
A literature review shows that international sanctions,as a policy tool adopted by sovereign countries or intergovernmental international organizations to force one or some specific international actors to change their political stance and behavior,although its influence comes from the moral binding force of sanctions or the so-called fairness and justice to a certain extent,its actual lasting influence comes from the structural power of the sanctions implementer in international affairs in the implementation process.What is the internal logic of Russia's economic resilience and recovery ability after sanctions?What is the actual impact of sanctions on the economy?The existing methods of event analysis and process analysis cannot give satisfactory answers because of the lack of comparative benchmarks and multi-sample comparison.On the basis of summarizing the policy points and logic of sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S.and Europe,this paper establishes two benchmarks for judging the degree and direction of sanctions affecting Russia's economic growth,namely,the deviation of Russia's economic growth from potential growth rate caused by sanctions and the deviation of Russia's economic growth from benchmark growth caused by sanctions.Among them,the second judgment is the focus of the study.Therefore,this study constructs a"synthetic Russia"as a comparison benchmark by using the Synthetic Difference in Difference Estimation(SDID),and finally compares the difference between the GDP growth rate of Russia and the GDP growth rate of"synthetic Russia".This study concludes that the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.and Europe have indeed had a negative impact on Russia's economic growth.From the empirical results,the short-term impact of"extreme sanctions"against Russia after 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than that of"moderate sanctions"after the 2014 Crimea crisis.The deviation of Russia's economic growth from the potential growth rate in the first year of extreme sanctions is about 3 percentage points,and the deviation from the benchmark economic growth rate of"synthetic Russia"is also significantly downward.In the long run,the adaptation of the Russia's economy to sanctions and the adjustment of endogenous economic growth drivers can hedge the impact of sanctions and potentially shift towards new growth models.
U.S.-European Coalition SanctionsSanctions against RussiaRussia's Economic GrowthEffects of Economic SanctionsSDID Model
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