How to Benefit from Both Sides:Foreign Policy Choices of Middle Powers in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict,many middle powers need to maintain their security and strategic relations with the United States or Europe on the premise of maintaining energy cooperation with Russia.In the face of this dilemma,they have three policy options:one is to go with the flow,be passive and perfunctory.They can go along with the collective pressure led and created by the U.S.and Europe and submit to the status quo of energy cooperation with Russia without taking any appeasement measures on both sides.The secondoption is to follow one side and protect the core:strongly condemn Russia politically,fully participate in economic sanctions against Russia,and continue cooperation with Russia in core areas and key products.The third option is to favor one side and compensate the other:declare neutrality to the conflict,and while providing substantial help to Russia,offer significant help on other important U.S.and European strategic concerns.In terms of practical experience,Austria has endeavored to maintain its pre-conflict political relations with the West and economic relations with Russia;Japan has"sided"with the West in both the cognitive and physical domains but at the same time has maintained its energy cooperation with Russia in a relatively covert manner;India,on the other hand,is committed to"supporting the U.S.in the U.S.-China rivalry"in exchange for"helping Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict".In the short and medium term,all of them have defended their core interests in foreign relations at relatively low cost.In the long run,the policy choices of these middle powers may lead to the polarization of their internal interest groups and the exacerbation of the external crisis of confidence,resulting in a possible increase in the tendency of the major powers on both sides of the conflict to"duel",increasing the difficulty of constructive influence exerted by the country to persuade and promote negotiations.However,at the same time,it also makes the global interconnection"flame"survive and gives rise to new opportunities behind the crisis.
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