The Duality of the Russian Economy under Western Sanctions:Resilience or Vulnerability
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the U.S.and the West have imposed super-sanctions on Russia that are unprecedented in the history of world sanctions.While sanctions caused the Russian economy to decline by 2.1％in 2022,the Russian economy rebounded from the second quarter of 2023 and grew by 3.6％that year,ahead of the world average.In 2024,the Russian economy will continue to grow.Russia's economic growth has shattered the West's expectations of an economic collapse and demonstrated its stage-by-stage resilience to external shocks.However,a country's economic resilience should not only include the ability to withstand external shocks and resume economic growth,but also the ability to continue to develop in a stable manner.Therefore,Russia's current economy is only at the first level,and it has not yet developed the second level of economic resilience.With the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fermentation of the"long-tail effect"of sanctions,the internal and external uncertainties of Russia's economic development will increase.The current phase of resilience,characterized by resilient growth,does not conceal the structural fragility of the Russian economy.The continued resilience of the Russian economy remains subject to a number of factors,including the external environment,structural transformation of the economy,financial development and scientific and technological progress.
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