首页|俄乌冲突背景下的中东欧能源转型与中国的应对——基于角色冲突的视角

俄乌冲突背景下的中东欧能源转型与中国的应对——基于角色冲突的视角

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角色冲突指行为体同时扮演两个或更多的角色,而这些角色承载不相容的期望.中东欧国家长期被视为欧盟内部能源转型的落后者,既不愿在本土加速转型,也经常反对欧盟实施激进脱碳政策.俄乌冲突爆发后,中东欧国家的能源战略出现较大调整,但呈现"积极转型者"和"消极转型者"的角色冲突.域内国家一方面支持加快转型,设定更高转型目标,加大可再生能源生产消费,推动大型项目开发,迅速改善政策环境;另一方面保障化石能源供应仍为各国首要任务,能源转型议题处于相对次要地位,多国继续维持对煤电的较大依赖.本文运用角色理论的分析框架,提出中东欧国家能源角色冲突的原因包括各国能源转型期望与能源安全期望之间的矛盾、争取外部利益与维护本土产业的冲突,同时各国还缺乏推动快速转型的实力和明确具体的转型目标.未来,中东欧国家将继续融入欧盟能源转型的大趋势,"积极转型者"角色或更加凸显,"消极转型者"角色或加速弱化;区域国家对核电的倚重有望加强,与美国的能源联系将会提升.中国是中东欧能源转型的重要伙伴,未来可从政策沟通、基础设施建设、清洁能源供应链等维度加强合作.
The Energy Transition in Central and Eastern Europe and China's Response to It in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict:From the Perspective of Role Conflict
Role conflict refers to the situation in which an actor plays two or more roles at the same time,and these roles carry incompatible expectations.Central and Eastern European(CEE)countries have long been regarded as laggards in the energy transition within the European Union(EU),and have been reluctant to accelerate the transition in their own territories and often opposed to the implementation of radical decarbonization policies by the EU.After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the energy strategies of the CEE countries have undergone a major reorganization,but with conflicting roles of"active transitioners"and"passive transitioners".On the one hand,countries in the region support accelerating transitions,setting higher transition targets,increasing renewable energy production and consumption,promoting the development of large-scale projects,and rapidly improving the policy environment;on the other hand,securing the supply of fossil fuels is still the top priority of each country,and the issue of energy transition has taken a relatively low priority,many countries continue to maintain a large dependence on coal power.Based on the analytical framework of role theory,this paper proposes that the reasons for the conflicting energy roles of CEE countries include the contradiction between the expectations of energy transition and energy security,the internal conflict between striving for external interests and safeguarding the local industry,and the lack of strength and clear and specific goals for the rapid transition.In the future,CEE countries will continue to be integrated into the EU's energy transition,with the role of the"positive transitioners"becoming more prominent and the role of the"negative transitioners"weakening;regional countries'reliance on nuclear power is expected to increase,and energy links with the United States will be enhanced.China is an important partner in the energy transition of Central and Eastern Europe,and cooperation can be strengthened in the future from the dimensions of policy communication,infrastructure construction,and clean energy supply chain.

Central and Eastern EuropeEnergy TransitionRenewable EnergyRole Conflict

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全球能源互联网发展合作组织经济技术研究院

中东欧 能源转型 可再生能源 角色冲突

国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目

SGTYHT/21-JS-223

2024

俄罗斯东欧中亚研究
中国社会科学院 俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

俄罗斯东欧中亚研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.309
ISSN:1671-8461
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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