The Logic and Options of Middle Powers in Responding to the Interference of Major Powers:A Study Based on the Case of Arms Purchases
In the context of competition between major powers,it is worthwhile to analyze how the group of middle powers responds to the threat of"taking sides"by the dominant power in the system.Prior research indicates that middle powers can maintain relative autonomy through strategic behaviors such as hedging,and they can also promote common norms that benefit themselves in multilateral settings,thereby restraining the behavior of major powers.Nevertheless,middle powers cannot always rely on their social identity to seek room for maneuver against major powers.In the context of bilateral relations,especially those involving mutual security concerns,middle powers must deal with great power interference on their own.Among these,the arms trade has a clear domestic attribute on the demand side,but is inevitably highly instrumental on the supply side.This tension makes the arms purchase scenario quite representative for studying major power interference in the domestic affairs of middle powers.This paper constructs an analytical framework with national autonomy and arms-selling state support as the core variables to explain the decision-making logic of a group of middle powers to independently respond to interference by major powers.For countries engaged in military procurement,national autonomy initially affects the cost of rejecting interference,whereas the support of the arms-selling state affects the benefits of rejecting interference.The combination of the two leads to different perceptions and choices regarding costs and benefits.Analysis of different cases not only validates these arguments but also offers policy insights for China to enhance security cooperation with middle powers by resonating with their quest for autonomy,thereby forestalling potential interferences.As the strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies,it is imperative for China to ingeniously influence the internal affairs of other countries through political and economic instruments and direct the cohort of middle-power countries to cultivate optimistic expectations for alterations in the international power structure.
Middle PowerMajor Power CompetitionTaking SidesArms Purchases
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