Limited Participation in Alliance:Strategic Choices of Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Belarus's strategic choice in the Russia-Ukraine conflict mainly manifests itself in limited participation.On the one hand,Belarus supports Russia's position in the conflict and has,in fact,become a participant.On the other hand,Belarus refuses to send troops,does not recognize the newly occupied Russian territory,and participates in conflict mediation,which also reflects a certain neutrality.The objective of this article is to elucidate the logic of Belarus's actions as a small country in an asymmetrical alliance with Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.To this end,the article reflects on the theory of the autonomy-security trade-off,and explores the limited involvement of Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The autonomous-security trade off model focuses on the problem of alliance formation.It posits that members of an alliance trade off their autonomous interests against their security interests,leading small states to often choose to follow a larger state for security.This paper suggests that small states also pursue their own autonomous interests.In the context of alliance maintenance,the level of dependence of small states on larger states is not static and their policy choices continue to be adjusted in response to changes in various conditions.The autonomy of small states is affected by a number of factors,including the level of security threats,the level of power,the extent of identification with the alliance,and the availability of alternative options.In this case,the key factors affecting Belarus's foreign policy decisions are changes in the security environment and the availability of alternative coalition partners.Since the 2020 presidential election,the internal and external security environment in Belarus has deteriorated significantly.Its external security has been further undermined by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and it has lost the option of hedging between Russia and the West,causing Belarus to return to the track of following Russia.Concurrently,Belarus,confronted with a diminution in its autonomy in alliance diplomacy,endeavored to prevent further losses of interests through involvement,and was particularly disinclined to establish a Russia-Belarus alliance at the expense of its sovereignty.Consequently,Belarus utilized its diplomatic capital to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and resolve the Wagner crisis,as well as engaging in far-arc diplomacy to obtain autonomous interests,thereby reiterating its neutrality.
BelarusRussia-Ukraine ConflictSmall State Alliance DiplomacyAsymmetric AllianceAutonomy-Security Trade
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