The Direction and Impact of Geopolitical Games in the Arctic Against the Background of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the geopolitical spillover effect rapidly manifested itself in the Arctic region.Consequently,the Arctic policies of Arctic countries,led by the United States and Russia,have become"geopoliticized",the geopolitical value of the Arctic region has been re-emphasized and geopolitical competition in the Arctic has intensified.The eight Arctic countries have initiated a series of new strategic deployments in the region.Firstly,the political and military"new cold war"situation,with the United States leading the"NATOization"of the Arctic and strategically squeezing Russia,while Russia is accelerating the construction of a strategic defense line in the northern region;secondly,extreme economic pressure and countermeasures,with the United States and the West increasing sanctions against Russia's Arctic gas projects,and Russia countering by accelerating the economic countermeasures.Thirdly,institutional"circleization":the formation of the A7 compelled Russia to"withdraw from the group"in the Arctic governance mechanism,prompting Russia to seek partnerships with countries outside the region.There is significant divergence within the international community regarding the future direction of the Arctic governance mechanism.Fourthly,the"pan-security"of low-profile political issues have intensified competition in the fields of Arctic minerals and shipping channels.However,in terms of"motivation-ability","cost-benefit",and international consensus,there is an upper limit to geopolitical competition in the Arctic.Arctic governance will continue to promote"sectoral cooperation".In the future,Arctic governance will coexist with turbulence.The"Arctic exception"will be challenged,cooperation mechanisms will face divisions,and extra-regional states will welcome new opportunities to participate in Arctic affairs.
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