陕西省建筑运行碳排放预测与达峰路径研究
Prediction and Reduction Path of Carbon Emissions in Shaanxi Building Sector
王军 1赵民 1李杨 1岳万年 1康维斌1
作者信息
- 1. 中国建筑西北设计研究院有限公司,西安 710018
- 折叠
摘要
建筑运行是建筑领域碳排放的重要组成,其占比超过90%,因此建筑运行碳排放情景预测与达峰路径规划是实现建筑领域碳达峰的工作基础.基于Kaya恒等式构建碳排放预测模型,采用自上而下方法对陕西省建筑运行碳排放趋势、峰值和达峰时间进行合理预测,结果表明:在基准情景下建筑运行碳排放在2035 年达峰,峰值7320.32 万tCO2,而在采取积极措施的达峰情景下可于2030 年达峰,峰值6282.03 万tCO2,当年需完成的减排目标值755.19 万tCO2;为如期实现预测情景下的达峰目标,基于自下而上的碳排放测算思路,并依据国家及陕西省地方政策要求拟定实施路径,测算各项关键技术措施在2030 年可实现减排总量794.83 万tCO2,高于减排目标值,建筑领域沿该路径可在2030 年前实现碳达峰.
Abstract
Building operation is an important component of carbon emissions in the building sector,accounting for over 90%.Therefore,scenario prediction and peak paths planning for building operation is the foundation for achieving carbon peak in the building sector.Through carbon emissions prediction model based on Kaya identity,the aim of the paper is to predict carbon emission's trend and peak by top-down method in Shaanxi building sector.The results suggest that building carbon emissions will peak in 2035,with 7320.32 million tons of CO2under the baseline scenario.However,it will peak in 2030,with 6282.03 million tons of CO2under the positive scenario,and 755.19 tons of carbon emissions need to be reduced.In order to ensure that the peak target under the forecast scenario as scheduled,this paper adopts the bottom-up carbon method and sets the implementation path according to the national and local policy requirements of Shaanxi Province.All key technological measures can achieve a total emission reduction of 794.83 million tons of CO2by 2030,which is higher than the emission reduction target.Therefore,building sector can achieve carbon peak before 2030 along the path.
关键词
建筑运行/碳排放/情景预测/路径Key words
building operation/carbon emissions/scenario prediction/path引用本文复制引用
基金项目
西安市科协青年人才托举计划(959202313043)
陕西省住房城乡建设科技计划(软科学研究类)(2021-R02)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据