Building operation is an important component of carbon emissions in the building sector,accounting for over 90%.Therefore,scenario prediction and peak paths planning for building operation is the foundation for achieving carbon peak in the building sector.Through carbon emissions prediction model based on Kaya identity,the aim of the paper is to predict carbon emission's trend and peak by top-down method in Shaanxi building sector.The results suggest that building carbon emissions will peak in 2035,with 7320.32 million tons of CO2under the baseline scenario.However,it will peak in 2030,with 6282.03 million tons of CO2under the positive scenario,and 755.19 tons of carbon emissions need to be reduced.In order to ensure that the peak target under the forecast scenario as scheduled,this paper adopts the bottom-up carbon method and sets the implementation path according to the national and local policy requirements of Shaanxi Province.All key technological measures can achieve a total emission reduction of 794.83 million tons of CO2by 2030,which is higher than the emission reduction target.Therefore,building sector can achieve carbon peak before 2030 along the path.
building operationcarbon emissionsscenario predictionpath
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
