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安徽省居住建筑终端能耗及碳排放达峰研究

Terminal Energy Consumption of Residential Buildings and Peak Carbon Emissions in Anhui Province

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以安徽省既有居住建筑运行阶段为研究对象,采用能源平衡表法、LEAP模型、碳排放因子法和STIRPAT模型等工具和方法,预测碳排放峰值及影响因素,并提出技术路径和政策建议.研究结果表明:安徽省居住建筑实现碳达峰的最佳实施路径应采取蓝图情景.该情景下居住建筑运行阶段碳排放2025年达到峰值3429.29万t,2060年回落至918.69万t.在影响因素方面,常住人口是居住建筑碳排放的主导因素,大小为-2.646;能源结构也对居住建筑碳排放产生了不小的影响,大小为-1.465,这得益于安徽省建筑消费能源结构的持续优化.因此,开展建筑电气化、发展可再生能源、限制一次能源的使用、优化能源结构至关重要.
This study focuses on the operational stage of existing residential buildings in Anhui Province.Various tools and methods including energy balance tables,the LEAP model,carbon emission factor method,and STIRPAT model are employed to predict carbon emission peaks and influencing factors,and to propose technical pathways and policy recommendations.The research findings indicate that the optimal implementation pathway for achieving peak carbon emissions in residential buildings in Anhui Province should follow the Blueprint Scenario.Under this scenario,carbon emissions from residential building operations are projected to peak at 34.2929 million tons in 2025 and decline to 9.1869 million tons by 2060.Regarding influencing factors,the resident population is identified as the predominant factor for carbon emissions from residential buildings,with a coefficient of-2.646.Additionally,energy structure also exerts a significant impact on residential building carbon emissions,with a coefficient of-1.465,which is attributed to the continuous optimization of energy consumption structure in Anhui Province.Therefore,initiatives such as building electrification,development of renewable energy sources,and restriction of primary energy usage are crucial for optimizing energy structure and reducing carbon emissions.

energy balance sheetLEAP modelSTIRPAT modelscenario analysisenergy efficiency in buildings

胡浩威、章昱斌、叶长青、梁倩、朱曙光、方潜生

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安徽建筑大学,合肥 230601

安徽省建设领域碳达峰碳中和战略研究院,合肥 230022

安徽省建筑科学研究设计院,合肥 230031

安徽省建筑节能与科技协会,合肥 230091

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能源平衡表法 LEAP模型 STIRPAT模型 情景分析 建筑节能

安徽省高等学校科研计划安徽省高等学校科研计划国家重点研发计划安徽省自然科学基金安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划

2022AH0200282022AH0100182023YFC38077042308085ME1732022-RK0252023-YF046

2024

10.3969/j.issn.2096-9422.2024.05.004

建筑节能(中英文)
中国建筑东北设计研究院有限公司

建筑节能(中英文)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.695
ISSN：2096-9422
年,卷(期)：2024.52(5)
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