In order to study the peak time and peak amount of carbon emission in building sector in Henan Province,STIRPAT model and ridge regression were used to predict the carbon emission trends under three scenarios based on the building carbon emission data. The research results show that:Under the three scenarios of business as usual,low carbon and enhanced low carbon,the carbon emission in the construction stage of Henan Province has reached the peak in 2021 . Carbon emissions in the building operation stage will not reach peak by 2035 under the baseline scenario,will reach peak by 2025 under the low carbon scenario,and reached peak in 2021 under the strong low-carbon scenario. The peak quantity under each scenario is given respectively. Considering the technical difficulty,implementation cost,extensibility,economic development and other factors,the low-carbon scenario model should be selected. In the low-carbon mode,operational carbon emissions should be reduced by improving building energy efficiency,optimizing building energy structure,promoting building electrification,increasing the application of renewable energy in buildings,controlling building scale,and strengthening research and demonstration of zero-carbon building technology.
building sectorcarbon peaksSTIRPAT modelforecastscenario analysis