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河南省建筑领域碳达峰预测研究

Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Building Sector in Henan Province

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为研究河南省建筑领域碳达峰的时间点及达峰量,基于河南省历年建筑领域碳排放数据,采用STIRPAT模型,并结合岭回归进行分析,在3种情景下进行了碳排放预测,研究结果表明:基准、低碳和强力低碳3种情景下,河南省建筑施工阶段碳排放均已于2021年达峰;建筑运行阶段碳排放基准情景下2035年不能达峰、低碳情景下2025年达峰、强力低碳情景下2021年达峰,分别给出了每种情境下达峰量;综合考虑技术难度、实施成本、可推广性、经济发展等因素,应选择低碳情景模式;低碳模式下应通过提升建筑能效、优化建筑用能结构、推进建筑电气化、加大建筑可再生能源应用、控制建筑规模、加强零碳建筑技术研发及示范等措施降低运行碳排放.
In order to study the peak time and peak amount of carbon emission in building sector in Henan Province,STIRPAT model and ridge regression were used to predict the carbon emission trends under three scenarios based on the building carbon emission data. The research results show that:Under the three scenarios of business as usual,low carbon and enhanced low carbon,the carbon emission in the construction stage of Henan Province has reached the peak in 2021 . Carbon emissions in the building operation stage will not reach peak by 2035 under the baseline scenario,will reach peak by 2025 under the low carbon scenario,and reached peak in 2021 under the strong low-carbon scenario. The peak quantity under each scenario is given respectively. Considering the technical difficulty,implementation cost,extensibility,economic development and other factors,the low-carbon scenario model should be selected. In the low-carbon mode,operational carbon emissions should be reduced by improving building energy efficiency,optimizing building energy structure,promoting building electrification,increasing the application of renewable energy in buildings,controlling building scale,and strengthening research and demonstration of zero-carbon building technology.

building sectorcarbon peaksSTIRPAT modelforecastscenario analysis

吴玉杰、孙旭灿、范立

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河南省建筑科学研究院有限公司,郑州 450053

河南省交通规划设计研究院股份有限公司,郑州 451460

建筑领域 碳达峰 STIRPAT模型 预测 情景分析

河南省科技重大专项

221100320100

2024

建筑节能(中英文)
中国建筑东北设计研究院有限公司

建筑节能(中英文)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.695
ISSN:2096-9422
年,卷(期):2024.52(8)
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