Main factors affecting the operating carbon emissions of public buildings of Jilin Province includes energy consumption intensity,economic activity intensity,industrial structure,urbanization rate,and population size through the Kaya-LMDI model involved the historical data from 2000 to 2020.To predict the carbon emission trend,the peak time and the peak level between 2021-2045 under the baseline scenario,the high-carbon emission scenario,the low-carbon emission scenario and the ultra-low-carbon emission scenario respectively,the STIRPAT model is built which bases on the Kaya-LMDI model.The predicting result indicates that under the low-carbon scenario,the carbon peak can be achieved in 2039 with a peak of 36.57 Mt by reducing the proportion of fossil fuels further to optimize energy structure,promoting high-quality development of the tertiary industry and implementing carbon trading policies for public buildings to reduce energy consumption intensity,which takes account of the economic growth,the energy conservation and the emission reduction.That is the optimal carbon emission scenario for public buildings of Jilin Province.This article can also provide a reference path about how to achieve the carbon reduction in public buildings for Jilin and other provinces in severe cold regions and assistance to achieve the"3060"Carbon Neutrality and Emission Peak target.
carbon emission in public buildingscarbon peakLMDISTIRPATJilin Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
