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当代右翼民粹主义行为体的对外政策偏好与行为逻辑

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这项研究试图在一般意义上探讨右翼民粹主义行为体的对外政策偏好.本文基于对右翼民粹主义的概念分析及相关文献的梳理,从对外决策模式、对外行为方式、对外决策内容等层面,针对此类行为体提出假设.通过针对美国、匈牙利、土耳其、印度的经验检验,研究发现,右翼民粹主义行为体在集中外交决策、建立多元伙伴关系与强调双边主义等方面存在较为一致的偏好,而在国际建制与移民难民问题上均呈现明显的选择性态度.右翼民粹主义行为体并不必然在执政后实施挑战国际建制或排外主义的政策,其刻意保持灵活性与选择性决策,体现了右翼民粹主义忽视长期战略与价值认同的意识形态特征,也构成此类行为体通过追求立竿见影的对外交易收益、保持执政后的动员性与获取竞选加分项的重要手段.
This study attempts to explore the for-eign policy preferences of right-wing populist actors in a general sense.Based on the conceptual analysis of right-wing populism and a review of related literature,this pa-per proposes hypotheses regarding these actors'decision-making patterns,behavior modes,and content of foreign policy.Through empirical examination of the United States,Hungary,Turkey,and India,the study finds that right-wing populist actors tend to show consistent preferences in centralizing diplomatic decision-making,establishing diverse partnerships,and emphasizing bilat-eralism.However,they exhibit selective attitudes towards international institutions,immigration and refugee issues.Right-wing populist actors do not necessarily implement policies that challenge international institutions or exhibit xenophobia after ascending to power.Their deliberate maintenance of flexibility and selective decision-making reflects the ideological characteristics of right-wing pop-ulism,which neglects long-term strategy and values identi-fication.This is also an important approach for such ac-tors to achieve immediate foreign policy benefits,main-tain mobilization after taking office,and gain electoral advantages.

Right-wing populismPolitical actorForeign policy preferencesTransactionalismPolitical mobilization

张楚楚

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复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

复旦大学陈树渠比较政治发展研究中心

右翼民粹主义 政治行为体 对外政策偏好 交易主义 政治动员

2024

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ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.33(1)