Research on the Demand and Optimization of Teacher Structure for Urban and Rural Compulsory Education in China towards 2035
This study utilizes data from the seventh national census to forecast the demand structure for teachers in China's urban and rural compulsory education from 2023 to 2035,and further analyzes the surplus and shortage situations based on these predictions.The findings reveal:(1)An overall downward trend is observed in the demand for teachers in the compulsory education phase.Specifically,in primary schools,the demand for teachers in both urban and rural areas initially declines and then stabilizes;in junior high schools,the demand initially rises and then falls.(2)Urban,county,and rural primary schools all exhibit a surplus of teachers in traditional subjects such as Chinese,mathematics,and foreign languages,while there is a shift from shortage to surplus in subjects like science,physical education,and integrated curriculum activities;Similarly,in urban,county,and rural junior high schools,there is a surplus of teachers in subjects such as foreign languages,information technology,history,and geography,while there is a shift from shortage to surplus in subjects like Chinese and physical education.(3)The surplus and shortage of teacher demand exhibit distinct characteristics in primary and secondary schools:in primary schools,216,400 additional teachers will be needed from 2023 to 2026,while an excess of 876,500 teachers is anticipated from 2027 to 2030,followed by a need for 4,700 additional teachers from 2031 to 2035;in junior high schools,a demand for 1.1495 million additional teachers arises from 2023 to 2030,whereas an excess of 538,000 teachers is expected from 2031 to 2035.
urban and ruralcompulsory educationenrolled studentsteacher demand
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
