Based on the information diffusion theory, the probability model on risk of forest pests in Fujian Province was built from three aspects including the area, range and extent of the forest pests occurrence from 1998 to 2014. Then, analyzing the situation and development trends of forest diseases and insect pests, and two indexes ( total occurrence areas of forest pests and forest occurrence rate) were selected to analyze the range and extent of occurrence. The results showed that: ( 1) The situation of forest diseases and forest insect pests are serious in Fujian province, which the occurrence area of forest insect pests is larger and it is a higher degree of occurrence;(2) The average annual occurrence area of mild and moderate forest diseases is about 31 000 hm2, and the probability of exceeding the mean annual of occurrence area is about 50%. Moreover, the cycle of the severe forest diseases with occurrence area of 1 910~2 300 hm2 is about 3~5 years. The probability of severe forest insect pests with the occurrence area over 10 000 hm2 is about 72.508%;(3) The fluctuation of each index of forest pests is not entirely consistent with fluctuation trend and frequency of its total occurrence area, in which the proportion of severe forest diseases occurrence area has an upward trend and fluctuates wildly;( 4) Both of the probability of over mean annual total occurrence area and rate of forest pests are about 50%.
information diffusion theoryforest pestsrisk probabilityFujian Province
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据
