An Analysis of the Prospect of Taiwan's Electoral Politics and Party Realignment:Based on Analysis of the 2024 Election Result
This paper explores the prospect of electoral politics and party realignment in Taiwan,based on the outcomes of the 2024 regional leadership and legislative elections on the island.Through a detailed examination of dramatic shifts in votes gained by the"Blue"and"Green"parties in the past,it attempts to detect the regular pattern of periodical changes in party spectrum and local politics,employs the theory and analytic concept of party realignment,and presents a general picture of future development of party politics in Taiwan.The Kuomintang's turnaround in the 2024 legislative election and the strong rise of the Taiwan People's Party as a third force provides two possibilities for the future development of party politics in Taiwan.If the KMT wins the next election for the regional leader and legislature,Taiwan's year-old bipartisan system is expected to continue,and there will be no strict party realignment.If the TPP continues to score in future elections,it means Taiwan could move from bipartisan politics to multi-party politics.It will be further observed on the performance of the KMT and the TPP in future elections whether the recognized political party realignment phenomenon will occur or not.
electionparty politicsparty realignmentKuomintangDemocratic Progressive PartyTaiwan People's Partythe third force
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
