God's dice:The role of probability theory in fact-finding
The attempt to apply Probability Theory to fact-finding in criminal trials has continued for more than 100 years.In 1968,the California Supreme Court gave a negative answer in People v.Collins based on four reasons.The development of DNA technology in the 1990s has made the court opening the door to the probabilistic evidence.But beyond that,no matter it is the prior probability,or empirical probability,or Bayes'theorem,the attempts to play a greater role in fact-finding have encountered various problems.Therefore,the attempt to extend"intelligent judicial decision making",which is based on the logic of probabilistic reasoning,to fact-finding is doomed to fail.
Probability theoryFact-findingPrior probabilityEmpirical probabilityBayes'theoremIntelligent judicial decision making
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