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气候变化对黄河上游流域径流影响分析

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近年来在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,黄河上游地表水资源偏枯形势严峻,严重影响了我国北方地区经济的可持续发展。为研究气候变化对径流的影响,利用黄河上游14个气象站点的逐月降水、气温和潜在蒸发资料以及唐乃亥水文站和上诠水文站的径流资料,采用线性相关法和M ann-Kendall法分析了气候变化对黄河上游流域径流的影响,结果表明,研究区域降水大致呈不显著递增趋势,气温、蒸发量呈显著递增趋势,径流量呈现显著减少的趋势;径流量发生突变的时间与气象因素的一致性较差,因此,可以得出径流量不仅受气温、降水、蒸发等气候因子的影响,还受到其他因素例如土壤、植被等因素的影响。
Impact Analysis of Climate Change on the Upper Reaches of Yellow River Runoff
Due to climate change and human activities in recent years ,the grim situation of insufficient surface water re-sources at the upstream of Yellow River is worsening ,which seriously affects the sustainable development of regional e-conomy in north China .To study the effects of climate change on the runoff ,month by month precipitation ,temperature and evaporation potential data of 14 weather stations at the upstream of Yellow River ,as well as the runoff data of Tang-naihai and Shangquan hydrological stations were adopted to analyze the impact of climate change on the Yellow River runoff using linear correlation method and Mann-Kendall method .The results indicate that the rainfall of the studied area is slightly increasing ,while the temperature ,evaporation are significantly increasing ,but the runoff is significantly re-duced;the timing of the runoff mutations isn’t in good consistency with the meteorological factors .Therefore ,it is con-cluded that the runoff is not only affected by the climate factors such as temperature ,precipitation ,evaporation ,but also by other factors such as soil and vegetation .

climate changethe Yellow River basinmeteorological elementsMann Kendall

王丽娜

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新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

气候变化 黄河流域 气象要素 Mann-Kendall

2015

水利与建筑工程学报
西北农林科技大学

水利与建筑工程学报

影响因子:0.383
ISSN:1672-1144
年,卷(期):2015.(1)
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