首页|基于组合赋权云模型的老城生活区火灾风险评估——以武汉市硚口区汉水桥街老城区为例

基于组合赋权云模型的老城生活区火灾风险评估——以武汉市硚口区汉水桥街老城区为例

扫码查看
为了提高老城生活区火灾风险评估的准确性与有效性,构建了基于组合赋权云模型的老城生活区火灾风险评估.首先,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,从火灾致害因子源、区域易损性特征以及火灾救援防范能力三个层面出发建立指标体系,选取了12个火灾指标因子;然后,采用了C-OWA-CRITIC法进行主客观赋权,采用博弈论组合赋权的方法来确定指标权重;最后,运用云模型来进行火灾等级评估,选取硚口区汉水桥街老城区进行实例应用.结果表明:1、2、4、6、7、8、9、10号子区域目前火灾风险等级处于中等风险,3、5、11、12、13、14号区域处于较低风险,与实际情况相符合,证明了该模型的科学性与适用性,完善了传统评价体系的主观性与不确定性.
Fire Risk Assessment of Living Areas in Old Quarters Based on Combined Empowerment Cloud Modeling:To take the Old Quarter of Hanshuiqiao Street,Qiaokou District,Wuhan City as an Example
In order to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of fire risk assessment of living areas in old quarters,we assessed the fire risk of living areas in old quarters on the basis of the combined empowerment cloud model.Firstly,based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model,a Fire Risk Assessment Indicator System is established from the three levels,such as fire-causing factor sources,regional vulnerability characteristics and fire rescue prevention ability,and 12 fire indicator factors are selected.Then,subjective and objective assignments are made by the C-OWA-CRITIC method,and the combination empowerment method of game theory is used to determine the weights of the indicators.Finally,the cloud model is used to assess the fire level,and an old quarter of Hanshuiqiao Street,Qiaokou District,Wuhan City is selected for example application.The results show that the fire risk level of sub-regions of1,2,4,6,7,8,9 and 10 are at medium risk,and that of sub-regions of 3,5,11,12,13 and 14 are at low risk,which is in line with the actual situation.It is showing that the model is scientific,applicable,and resolving the subjectivity and uncertainty of the traditional evaluation system.

old quarterfire riskcombined empowermentcloud modelingrisk assessment

谭丽丽、曲娜、隋宇凡、韩磊

展开 >

沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院,辽宁沈阳 110136

老城区 火灾风险 组合赋权 云模型 风险评估

2024

防灾科技学院学报
中国灾害防御协会 防灾科技学院

防灾科技学院学报

影响因子:0.496
ISSN:1673-8047
年,卷(期):2024.26(3)