The Arps hyperbolic decline equation is a commonly used method applied in production forecasting at the early stage of oil and gas field development,which refers to the fitting parameters of similar reservoirs to carry out the production prediction with a fixed pressure differential as a guide to development policy.For the Shunbei fault-karst reservoirs,formation pressure drops significantly,and the reservoir under the formation-saturation pressure differential exhibits significant non-linear flow characteristics,with a unique nonlinear inertial resistance.These features cannot be characterized by the oil recovery index describing the linear flow characteristics,which has the disadvantages of large error and single production prediction result.By analyzing the declining production characteristics of the Shunbei oil and gas field,constructing a dynamic reserve model based on the principle of material balance,and combining the results of the general production capacity equation and production capacity evaluation index in the Shunbei oil and gas field,a new production forecasting method of elastic drive in fault-karst reservoirs is developed.This method can be used to guide production management during the development stage of elastic drive in fault-karst reservoirs,with higher adaptability and accuracy.It also provides the basis for optimizing and guiding well development policy during the economic evaluation of capacity-building strategies in fault-karst reservoirs and offers support for making decisions on multiple development policy options.
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